Hopefully you’re enjoying the warm glow that comes with a New Year. All the hopes and possibilities of a better year lay in front of us all. This is as good a time as any to dash them.

I don’t intend to be mean, but there’s nothing quite like a political and constitutional crisis looming to put a damper on the festivities. And boy, do we have a good one in the works.

It starts with the speculation that Michael Bloomberg may run for President as an Independent. This isn’t an idle prospect, as many people close to him say it’s going to happen. Is this another Ross Perot? This guy has more money, more time if he acts now, and frankly is not quite as nutty as Perot. The threat is a real one.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080101/ap_po/bloomberg_2

Can he win? Let’s say that’s a high hurdle. But could he win a state or two, such as his own New York? That’s a real possibility, especially when you look at the potential competition. Obama is largely untested, and a poll suggested that a majority of Americans claim they wouldn’t even consider voting for Clinton.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/28/248165.aspx

The Republican candidates are equally weak, with Romney having a lot of baggage (and a big credibility issue) and Huckabee’s relentless pandering to his natural base as a Baptist Minister. Clearly, the two parties will be battling from a position of unusual weakness on both sides.

That means that a well funded independent with time to get his or her message out could win a state or two – remember that Perot came in second in 1992 in Maine and Utah. And that might be enough to gum things up as recent elections have been very close.

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1992.txt

To understand what can happen, we have to turn to the 12th Amendment to the Constitution. This is what governs Presidential Elections. It states that:

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.

http://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_Am12.html

The quick run-down is this: If an Independent such as Bloomberg does nothing more than win a few states and prevent anyone else from getting a majority of the electors (270), the election is thrown to the US House of Representatives where the representatives vote by state, not as individuals. How would that go down?

If you assume that the new House looks like the current one, the breakdown by Democrats and Republicans is 26-21-3, the three representing the states that are tied. While the Democrats currently have a majority, a full 11 of them (and 9 Republican) would switch sides with the change of only one seat. That could mean that whoever becomes President is dependant on who wins control of the House, which is very much up for grabs in terms of Presidential voting.

But the potential exists for something even worse. If it were to slip to, say, 25-22-3, no party would have a majority. We’d have a situation very much like the one that existed the last time an election was thrown to the House in 1824 and a “corrupt bargain” was made to elect John Quincy Adams President. He was the only other son of a former President to make the office, and his election marked the complete destruction of the old Federalist Party forever.

History doesn’t repeat, you know, but it does rhyme.

So consider for a moment that 2008 might have an absolutely epic constitutional crisis looming, something that will make the events of 2000 look like a picnic. Oh, and remember that you saw it here first.

Have a nice year!