Swing State

Posted on 8 February 2012 by Erik Hare | 26 Comments

Any analysis of national elections always comes down to a few “Swing States”. These are the states that are not reliably in one camp or another but are up for grabs. None of them has characterized the national elections better than Ohio, a state that had 20 Electoral Votes through the 2000s – a fairly rich prize. It has served as a valuable “bellwether”, picking the winner consistently for some time. As chaotic as our national politics has been, Ohio has seen it all.

But the story of Ohio might well come down to a very simple analysis itself. The economy of Ohio, specifically the state of jobs, may tell the whole story despite all the smoke and noise that accompanies elections. It is a tale of a Depression, running its course through the heartland of America since at least the year 2000.

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Back to Even

Posted on 6 February 2012 by Erik Hare | 23 Comments

It came as a shock – the pleasant kind of surprise that sent the stock market soaring to levels not seen in a long time. The January employment report, released last Friday, showed a growth of 240k jobs last month. It was good news for everyone, but especially for President Obama. The story of the first three years of his Presidency has now been written in the job reports:

One year down, two years back up. We’re back to even and working to get ahead.

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Negative Interest

Posted on 3 February 2012 by Erik Hare | 28 Comments

Modern finance has seen many innovations in the last 20 years. The Black-Scholes-Merton theory promised risk-free investment if it was properly hedged, or insured through market based options. That spawned a whole new category of investment in derivatives, or re-selling of insurance that nearly anything might go wrong. There were always new places to put money through the last generation as new concepts of “investment” were created. But through it all, there was one constant: there is a time value to money, which is to say that money today is paid for tomorrow plus a little bit more – call it “interest”.

No longer. Debt from large, secure nations is being sold at net negative interest rates, meaning that those with money are actually paying to lend it. Money today is worth less than money in the future. The implications of this are staggering.

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Drugs

Posted on 1 February 2012 by Erik Hare | 9 Comments

“Just say ‘No!’.” Drugs have not been discussed frankly and openly in US politics since the Controlled Substances Act of 1970 was passed. The framework passed then set up five categories or “schedules” of drugs based on their medical use and potential for abuse and how they would be regulated. Over the years laws that reinforce this regulatory structure have been passed and criminal penalties raised and lowered, but the basic concept has remained solid.

Since that time, however, many changes have occurred on the fringes of “drug” use in the US. Tobacco use has been banned from most public places and drinking ages were raised to curb their use. Prescription drug abuse has become an epidemic. Caffeine consumption has roughly tripled and is now available in high purity. Even marijuana, criminalized since 1937, has become de facto legal in several states.

Treatment programs are available for anyone who wants to stop using any of these “drugs”, but some of them have to watch out for the laws that stand in their way. Is it time to completely revamp how we regulate and criminalize “drugs”?

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One Crisis at a Time, Please

Posted on 30 January 2012 by Erik Hare | 15 Comments

There is a deadline – March 20th. There is a plan – 70% default, much higher than what’s been suggested before. The Greek Crisis has everything it needs to conclude after two and a half years standing on the edge of a cliff. Left to negotiate is whether or not Germany will have a man in place in Athens to oversee the Greek budget process as what the Guardian calls a kind of “Viceroy”. It probably won’t fly but it does beg the question, “What if we had a German overseer to our budget process here in the US?”.

Nevermind, there have been enough diversions. At the EU summit this week the details should be finalized and the process for bailing out Greece will be in place. The world can move on to other worries. There is even the chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have some authority to print more Euros shortly.

Don’t care? You should. This is very important news to the US for astonishing reasons. The bigger problem, brewing for generations, is that we have lost control over our currency and have no chance to get it back unless Europe gets its act together.

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