Is the economy growing?  The short answer is “Yes”, but the long answer is “No”.  Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the first quarter of 2012 came in at 2.2% annualized, which is at least a positive number.  The UK and Spain can’t claim that, falling into recessions for the second time since 2008.  But this is nowhere near enough growth to create jobs and keep the forward momentum building at the end of 2011.

Some will blame rising gasoline prices and others will cite the sharp declines in government spending, especially at the state and local level.  Still others will refer to ongoing investor unease and unwillingness to put money into new projects.  But this is all speculation.  What we do know is that job growth has led the recovery so far and probably will have to in the next quarter if this will turn around.  And that’s exactly backwards from what you typically see in a recovery.

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Data comes in from an amazing variety of sources telling us just what is up or down in the economy.  If it can be measured, it probably is.  You want jobs information?  There’s information on unemployment, job creation, job destruction, hours worked …  just about whatever you want.  Deciding what is useful is always the hard part – and that is the great skill any of us have to develop in this information age.

A year ago Barataria was focused on Unemployment Initial Claims as a good proxy for total job growth figures that would come out later in the month.  It worked for a while because in 2010 through the summer of 2011 we were at or near the bottom of job creation, picking up steam very slowly.  This figure stopped being a good indicator for reasons that suggest  large employers are still laying off people (those who are eligible for unemployment benefits) while small companies are hiring.

But it would be wrong to drop our study of Initial Claims completely, so let’s take another look.

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