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What if Obamacare Works?

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If you listen carefully in Washington, you can hear the tiny whooshing sound that dice make when they are up in the air.  The difference is that when politicians throw them you hear a lot more bluster and babbling.

Sen Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is up for re-election in 2014, and he knows just how the next 18 months are going to go for his re-election plans.  It’s a steady diet of scandals and a call to repeal “Obamacare”. He told the Washington Post, “I was in favor of repealing Obamacare long before the IRS scandal,” he said. “It’s the single worst piece of legislation in a long time.”  McConnell added that the health-care law “has an overwhelming likelihood of being the most important issue of fall of 2014 campaign.”

We’ve already discussed how ridiculous the scandal-mongering is, but what if Obamacare actually works?  That’s not an idle question, either, because there is considerable evidence that it will work – for very conservative, Republican reasons.  And at least one key Republican has admitted as much.

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The Scandal of Scandals

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Benghazi.  IRS.  Boston Marathon “False Flags”.  AP.  These are a few of the “scandals” that get a tremendous amount of airplay and, judging from opinion polls, mostly yawns.  Why do they get so much coverage?  It’s only because of the push behind them, not the relative truth or fiction within.

They are, indeed, a matter of policy.  The Heritage Foundation, lobbying arm of the supposedly non-partisan Heritage Foundation, circulated a letter to House Republicans stating “… it would be imprudent to do anything that shifts the focus from the Obama administration to the ideological differences within the House Republican Conference.  …  Legislation such as the Internet sales tax or the FARRM Act which contains nearly $800 billion in food stamp spending, would give the press a reason to shift their attention away from the failures of the Obama administration to write another ‘circular firing squad’ article.”

While the constant barrage of scandals is draining, it’s best to not confront it too directly.  Here’s what progressives and other Americans interesting in getting things done need to concentrate on.

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Bank Regulation That Makes Sense

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“Too Big To Fail” (TBTF) is the standard for socialized risk and privatized profits.  The biggest banks enjoy an implied bailout under Dodd-Frank regulations that give them a tremendous advantage over smaller banks.  The complex weave of financial innovations that are their signature is impossible for anyone to understand, making the risk we have taken on as taxpayers almost impossible to quantify.

What can be done about it?  Try TBTF – the “Terminating Bailouts for Taxpayer Fairness” Act of 2013.

This legislation, introduced by Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, and David Vitter, a Louisiana Republican, cuts through the complexity, levels the playing field among banks, and ends “Too Big To Fail” once and for all.  What chance does it have?  Actually, a very good one because of some terrific politics.

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The Good Fight Wins

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Two years ago, nearly to the day, a curtain of gloom hung over progressives in Minnesota.  A constitutional amendment was passed and sent on to the voters to enshrine in the state constitution that marriage was “between one man and one woman”.  It was largely a cynical play to demonize homosexuals and get people out to the polls to vote Republican.  The left was shocked and demoralized.

Today, Governor Dayton signed the bill which creates Marriage Equity in Minnesota, or legalizes gay marriage if you insist.  It’s a remarkable achievement for this state, the 12th in the US to do so, but the two year path from despair to elation is a fantastic story too intricate to tell here.  But one thing can certainly be said of this story:

It was one of the biggest political goofs in history – and if we learn from it this could be a turning point.

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Retiring Inequality

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Income inequality is one of the biggest barriers to sustained growth today.  You can’t have a consumer economy without income reasonably well distributed, and such an economy is going to have more sustained, reliable growth.  But as we’ve shown before, income inequality has grown since 1968, threatening long term growth.

Here is another way to look at that rising inequality as part of a long-term trend that defined 1968-2000 – the expansion of the workforce and subsequent collapse of that expansion that will solidify  when the Baby Boom hits retirement.  Economic changes are often demographic at heart, and we are due for some major upheaval that we need to be ready for.

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