The Big Fight

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The conventions are over and the election is less than two months away.  That can only mean one thing – voters in Florida and Ohio would be better off not watching any teevee.  Who is likely to win?  The race is shaping up to be Obama’s to lose, although it’s unclear how the US House or other key races will come out.

It’s time to make a few predictions as to how it will go – and what we should be watching for.  That way you can make fun of me later.  Here are what I consider to be the key points.  Ready?

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Surviving, Thriving, Realizing

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To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 (KJV)

Anyone who has been close to the edge knows what “survival mode” is like.  Small flashes of adrenaline propel you from one day to the next.  Each fitful dawn is a mix of dread and possibility, all of them taken one at a time.  Next week?  Worry about it when it comes.  Next month?  Forever away.

Many people find themselves in “survival mode” through this Depression, especially those without either work or unemployment bennies.  For them it is a slowly unfolding tragedy, but in great numbers they become a society, a culture, and an economy that is unable to function.  That’s because a free market only reaches equilibrium in the long run, actually running on small differences in the short term.  But in the very longest term the magic of market forces become something else altogether.

Everything has its own time.  When we start to understand that “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself” it helps to appreciate the short, long, and very long term that are all whipping us through each day and all of our days.

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Acronyms vs. Reality

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has come to the rescue!  On Friday, they announced a separate permanent fund to buy €500 billion worth of national bonds from EU member nations.  Markets were up worldwide in response to news that the Euro would be preserved and stabilized.  It’s nothing but good news all around!  Right?

Not so fast.  Like all good news these days, it has its roots in bad news.  Two days earlier, the German government was unable to sell enough bonds at auction, as demand fell for anything tied to the Euro.  Bailing out Greece or Spain was never really on the table, but bailing out Germany is a priority for the Frankfurt based ECB.  And this starts the twisted and difficult tale of the bailout that may or may not culminate in the closing chapter of the Eurosaga that has plagued markets for over four years.

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Tale of Two Reports

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It was the best of reports, it was the worst of reports.  The story of jobs in the USofA continues to wind down like a Dickens novel, crammed of details and well defined moments lush with feeling and energy but lacking a strong, driving plot.  We know when it ends, of course – somewhere many pages from now in the election in November.  Exactly how it goes down is entirely another question.

But for August we have two job reports.  The ADP report showed a private employment gain of 200k, a wonderfully robust gain that suggests a strong economy is really turning the corner.  The official household survey from the Department of Labor came in with an incredibly weak 96k jobs gained, a number that is not really treading water.  Why the discrepancy?  What is the real state of jobs?  How will this play in the election?

Keep reading.  This novel is far from done.

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Freebird!

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It was a crisp Spring day winding down as I drove to get my daughter Thryn at school.  She usually takes the bus, way cooler than Dad picking her up, but this day she had to be somewhere else.  I had parked and was wandering around the lot when she and her friends bubbled out in a small knotted mass of clumsily developing suave.  Thryn ran over to excitedly ask some question about The Beatles, which album a song was on or some other small fact.  I told her as her friends gathered around.  One of them asked me another Beatles question and I dutifully replied.  Then another came.

I saw in their faces a look of wonder as to how anyone could know all this as questions started boiling out of them.  I was the sage, dispensing wisdom vital to the ages.  And the horror rose from deep within me.

No, no, nonono, you can’t think your parents’ music is cool!  You can’t think your parents are in anyway cool!  This just isn’t right!

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