Nothing Stupid. Right?

My friends ask me all the time about the Fiscal Cliff.  The assumption is that, as a person who watches these things, I am supposed to know what is going on.  I don’t, I admit it.  The most reasonable thing I have heard on the negotiations came long ago from a source I can’t remember – that the staffers had more-or-less worked out a deal weeks ago, and it’s simply down to the final posturing by their bosses before something is finalized.

That’s probably over-stating it a bit, but certainly once the election was over the relative strength of the positions was known and there was little point in “negotiating” any more.  Politicians in high office don’t get there by being stupid (usually).  So before we head into the endgame of the year, we can look back on how the Republican position became weaker and weaker – and why they will probably wind up caving on all the most important things before this is over.

Continue reading

Fiscal Cliff

The phrase is often credited to Ben Bernanke, but variations of it have been around for decades.  The “Fiscal Cliff” that went largely unmentioned during the campaign now dominates the talk out of Washington.  It is probably the most important thing that will happen in the next Congress, and it will certainly set the tone for the end of the Obama administration.  Yet almost no one has taken the time to explain what’s at stake in plain language.

Continue reading

Soup’s On!

After a big feast, the bones of whatever animal was consumed can be gathered and boiled down for soup.  Elections are a feast of sorts, if you prefer blather to meat, and it’s customary to make some kind of broth from the whole experience.

Why bother?  Those of us who are “into it” love to analyze trends and learn whatever we can along the way.  The next election will be shaped by these lessons more than anything else.  And if we’ve learned one thing in this deeply divided America, it’s that election season is pretty much forever.

Ready?

Continue reading

Ice This Thing

In any close basketball game, the last few minutes take just about forever.  There are strategic time-outs to regroup and plan, and there are numerous fouls given by the team behind just to get the ball back.  An election is no different, and Hurricane Sandy is the timeout needed by Team Obama to ice the win.

But they had the lead going into it.  The economic reports coming out this week show the score very clearly, and it’s definitely Obama’s game to lose.  As the press starts to bubble how big the lead is and Romney starts to foul out, we can see how this developed very clearly over the long summer – as was noted in Barataria all along.

The real difference between an election and a hoop game is that not many people know how to keep score.

Continue reading

2012 Predictions

The election is a week away.  It’s time to make a few predictions and offer some analysis, if only so that everyone can make fun of me when this is all over.

Regular readers know how much disdain I have for the horserace that characterizes most of the reporting, but in the end it comes down to that.  Still, there are many issues revolving around the ability to call this thing properly that are fascinating, at least to someone too far into it.  My fondest hope is that at least some of them break in ways that defy conventional wisdom and shake things up.

Ready?

Continue reading