The Big Fight

Posted on 14 September 2012 by Erik Hare | 10 Comments

The conventions are over and the election is less than two months away. That can only mean one thing – voters in Florida and Ohio would be better off not watching any teevee. Who is likely to win? The race is shaping up to be Obama’s to lose, although it’s unclear how the US House or other key races will come out.

It’s time to make a few predictions as to how it will go – and what we should be watching for. That way you can make fun of me later. Here are what I consider to be the key points. Ready?

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Tale of Two Reports

Posted on 7 September 2012 by Erik Hare | 18 Comments

It was the best of reports, it was the worst of reports. The story of jobs in the USofA continues to wind down like a Dickens novel, crammed of details and well defined moments lush with feeling and energy but lacking a strong, driving plot. We know when it ends, of course – somewhere many pages from now in the election in November. Exactly how it goes down is entirely another question.

But for August we have two job reports. The ADP report showed a private employment gain of 200k, a wonderfully robust gain that suggests a strong economy is really turning the corner. The official household survey from the Department of Labor came in with an incredibly weak 96k jobs gained, a number that is not really treading water. Why the discrepancy? What is the real state of jobs? How will this play in the election?

Keep reading. This novel is far from done.

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Convention(al) Wisdom

Posted on 27 August 2012 by Erik Hare | 15 Comments

Why do we still have political conventions? There is a legal requirement that they actually sit down and have the formal vote on who their nominee will be, but that does not take days of speechifying and pageantry. If another political party like the Greens or Libertarians tried to get their conventions on prime-time teevee night after night they’d be laughed at. So why do the two parties get so much unfiltered airtime?

Because people watch it.

About 40M Americans watched Obama’s acceptance speech in 2008, and nearly 2/3 of all Americans watch at least some of the conventions. That’s about the same as the Olympics, generally speaking. People actually want to hear the candidates speak without filters, and they want the party to tell the world what it stands for.

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Gaps & Gaffs

Posted on 22 August 2012 by Erik Hare | 11 Comments

The long season that leads up to an election is more like a basketball game than any other sports analogy – you make your shots, stay with the plan, and stay focused in the last few seconds. That is why campaigns are often defined by gaffs and mis-statements.

The recent comments by Rep. Todd Akin won’t be repeated here, but there are plenty of places where they have been refuted completely. One of them comes from the Romney campaign, which even went as far as to call on Akin to quit his Senate race. They don’t want this anywhere near their candidate.

Polls show that, like a good hoop game, the Presidential election is close. But the gap among women is on the order of 15% and could become much worse. How? This takes us back to a number of mess-ups with women that defined the discussion last Spring and threatened to rub off on all Republicans – something they can’t afford.

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