optimism | Barataria - The work of Erik Hare

A short time ago, I asked my friends on facebook if they were optimistic about the economy. Scratch that – I insisted that the negative case for this slowly improving economy was bunk and got an eyeful of responses. Needless to say, my friends aren’t in the mood for Mr. Sunshine, as some of the commentators here have called me. Talk about fundamentals improving? Show them the money. Building a strong foundation for the next economy is nothing compared to a strong roof overhead and comfortable home inside.

So it is time to make the case for optimism, which is to say why I feel that things are going to get better in 2014. Either I’m ahead of the curve or I’m just plain wrong – you get to pick. All I ask is that whichever you pick now you file away, with this piece, and evaluate the decision for keeps later. But this is the case for the economy finally picking up this year and developing strong momentum into 2015 and beyond – into 2017 when I still think good times will be had.

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The economy added 118k jobs in November, if you go by the ADP report, or 146k jobs if you go by the noisier official number. Let’s call it 118k because we’ve consistently touted the value of the ADP report. By any measure, it was a lot more than was expected, given the landfall of hurricane Sandy at the end of October.

Now that the election is over, there is growing optimism that the economy is indeed … growing. It’s not a lot, but it’s there. And that’s where we stand as we move into the next phase of the political season – the part defined by getting down to work and making use of the mandate given by voters. That mandate is clearly defined by a divided Congress and a Democratic President who are at odds over how to either avoid the Fiscal Cliff or, perhaps, go over it.

Even if the election didn’t tell us much, the economy is. We’d be wise to listen to it.

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