Soup’s On!

After a big feast, the bones of whatever animal was consumed can be gathered and boiled down for soup.  Elections are a feast of sorts, if you prefer blather to meat, and it’s customary to make some kind of broth from the whole experience.

Why bother?  Those of us who are “into it” love to analyze trends and learn whatever we can along the way.  The next election will be shaped by these lessons more than anything else.  And if we’ve learned one thing in this deeply divided America, it’s that election season is pretty much forever.

Ready?

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A Guy Can Dream

The Presidential election is tightening.  That’s only to be expected as we get closer, especially through the debate weeks.  It was predicted here that Romney simply showing up and looking like a human would give him a bounce after weeks of demonizing, and he did better than that.  Obama will have to find his A-Game to seal this thing.

But it is still Obama’s to lose.  The “toss-up” states are nearly all ones that Romney should be ahead in already, and he will have to win almost all of them to pull this thing out.  The big money is going to continue to flee his campaign and look to the more interesting races, particularly for the US House.

The race for the House is very close by the only measure we have, the Generic Congressional Ballot.  That could make for something very interesting this January no matter which party manages to pull it out.  In a big world of speculation this is worth thinking through.

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The Big Fight

The conventions are over and the election is less than two months away.  That can only mean one thing – voters in Florida and Ohio would be better off not watching any teevee.  Who is likely to win?  The race is shaping up to be Obama’s to lose, although it’s unclear how the US House or other key races will come out.

It’s time to make a few predictions as to how it will go – and what we should be watching for.  That way you can make fun of me later.  Here are what I consider to be the key points.  Ready?

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The Ryan Gamble

The choice of a running mate can easily be over-stated.  Did anyone vote for Obama because they like Biden?  How about Dick Cheney?  Or, for that matter, Joe Lieberman?  The Veep doesn’t really change the ticket enough to make any real difference in the long run – but it can change the perception in the press and inject some energy into a campaign.  If that’s what was at stake here Mitt Romney, the candidate who could do nothing right, hit a home run or some other sports analogy right when he needed it.

Policy-wise, Paul Ryan brings some serious risk.  But his personality and articulate ability to speak out are the real deal.  Many liberals, including myself, have little choice but to respect him even as we disagree with him.  Nothing substantial has changed in this campaign but it looks like we have a race – and, more importantly, a chance to talk about the critical decisions that have to be made sooner rather than later.

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A New Beginning

Barataria stands as a blog with a purpose.  Most of the time, that purpose is to tell the stories lost in the jargon of economics and finance that have come to define our recent lives far more than most people are comfortable with.

If we can’t grab what is happening around us and make it our own, how can we call ourselves a free and democratic society?  Barataria does what it can to offer a different way of looking at what is happening and relate it in story form, free of unexplained jargon.  Hopefully, this will help to make a more real and useful politics.

After a few months of big events and heavy articles, it’s time to summarize the Baratarian view on the big economic picture in one polemic and invite your comments.

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