The “Facts” are Failing

Back in the 1950s, people who studied complex things like economies felt they were making real progress. The general belief was that by understanding how it all worked we could even things out and usher in a new era of continuous prosperity that would benefit everyone.

Some of the underlying “facts” that were identified at this time have been accepted as simple truths. Growth is always good, and economic growth always flows to workers, making their lives better generation by generation. There’s only one problem lately – some of the “facts” appear to not be as true as they used to be. That means that the underpinnings of modern economic theory are all being questioned and, perhaps, if we don’t keep our eyes open the new era of prosperity will be far more elusive than anyone thought.

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Retiring Inequality

Income inequality is one of the biggest barriers to sustained growth today.  You can’t have a consumer economy without income reasonably well distributed, and such an economy is going to have more sustained, reliable growth.  But as we’ve shown before, income inequality has grown since 1968, threatening long term growth.

Here is another way to look at that rising inequality as part of a long-term trend that defined 1968-2000 – the expansion of the workforce and subsequent collapse of that expansion that will solidify  when the Baby Boom hits retirement.  Economic changes are often demographic at heart, and we are due for some major upheaval that we need to be ready for.

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Labor Day – Holding On

This Labor Day is more important than most.  It signals the start of the endgame of the election, the time when everything starts to count even more because everyone is paying attention.  And this year, what people are paying attention to more than anything is labor itself – the state of jobs.

Barataria has dealt with the job market many times over the summer.  While there is a net gain in jobs over the Obama administration the growth in jobs barely absorbs the young people entering the workforce.  It’s not exactly the material for a strong re-election.  But that’s not all there is to the jobs picture.

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