I just received an e-mail from a friend stating that I didn’t make any predictions for Super Tuesday, or at least not direct ones that can be pointed to and laughed at later. Being a Celt, it goes without saying that there’s no point in being interested in a sport if you don’t know how to handicap it for betting purposes. So here is not only my prediction but my handy guide to watching the results roll in tonight.

Make popcorn.

I look at what is really in play and what we can use as a reliable bellwether. Keep in mind that a bellwether is a neutered ram that has been further humiliated by having a bell tied around its neck, standing sentry over any disturbance in the flock. Having said that, this is what we can expect.

New York has voted for Clinton before, and they will again out of both pride and habit. New Jersey has seen a lot of her, too, and is widely expected to go along. Illinois will do the same for Obama, and he’s heavily ahead in Georgia and Alabama, too. Those taken as givens are 339 delegates for Clinton and 292 for Obama, nearly a wash. Granted, the complicated rules of awarding delegates proportionally by Congressional District, etc, mean it won’t be that clean, but that’s the rough starting point we have.

The key contests early on are in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Wait, didn’t I say that everyone put the Garden State firmly on Clinton’s side? Ah, but the polls there had it closing into a tight race, and turnout is reported as being very heavy. There are signs of a big Obama upset in New Jersey, all exits to be precise. Massachusetts is harder to call, but with the blitz the Kennedys and John Kerry have put on Obama is at least even. Look to these three states early on to see what kind of night we will have – if Obama gets any 2 of them, he wins this. New Jersey is the real bellwether, and that’s not just a oblique Jersey joke (I have better).

Then, we move on. Oklahoma and Tennessee are both Clinton territory, 106 delegates total, but later on they are met with Obama’s strength in Colorado and Kansas, 87 total. Ignore those. The real fight as we move into Central Time is in Missouri and Minnesota, both up for grabs and a total of 144 delegates. Obama needs to win at least one of them. Missouri appears to have reacted badly to the South Carolina theatrics as it’s one of the few states where Clinton’s number’s went down as Obama’s went up, meaning that it wasn’t just undecided voters making up their mind. I think that the larger African-American population of Missouri might put a heavy price on Bill Clinton’s routine.

Then it all rolls into Mountain time, where Arizona and New Mexico at 82 total should be for Clinton. They may not be. We should know by then what this evening is going to be like.

California will be a mess. Obama looks to win it rather big, and its 370 delegates swamp everything else from early in the evening. However, many of the ballots will be hand counted on paper since the state’s electronic voting machines were de-certified last year. Yes, that’s right, it will be laaaaate at night before we know about that one.

So what is my prediction? I think Obama is going to kick serious ass, and I’ll put that wager down on New Jersey, thank you. I see three levels for tonight – a rough tie, which means Obama exceeds expectations, a solid win for Obama in California, meaning he’s the front runner, or a major rout that tells us it’s all over. Mass, Jersey, and Conneticut will tell us if it’s the latter early on, which is what I expect now.

Further notes:

I think it’s cute how Teddy Kennedy says the name “Obama” with a little pause that makes it sound like an Irish name – O’bama.

Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain, and his numbers in California went down. Is that telling us something about Ahnold?

Last night on CNN there was a clip of Obama at the Meadowlands where he sounded even more like Dr. King than usual. He’s really revving up the cadence. Is America ready for JFK and MLK rolled into one? His expectations are really starting to peak, and he’s only feeding that fire.

Clinton plain looks tired lately. I think she caught a cold at the last minute the way she’s been so hoarse. I think that if this goes down the way I think she can legitimately chalk it up to bad luck – not just for the cold, but for the simple fact that her great resume and experience suddenly became a liability in a rather crazy year.

The Republicans are doing what I thought they would, which is get together as a team. If Rush Limburger doesn’t get on the team soon, he’ll be left in the cheering section. Romney might not think this is over, but it’s over. Republicans do not fight other Republicans – it’s Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment, fer Ronnie’s Sake!

Sick of It? Nah!

In honor of Super Tuesday, I’m going to have a Super Blog entry. Everything will be oversized and beyond the comprehension of mere mortals. Hey, that’s the world we live in, yes?

Just kidding. I’d like to be especially dense and complicated, but it’s just not in me. This is my mail day, and since I don’t have a comments section in this blog format the least I can do is answer the mail I get.

Sadly, this was a thin week for mail. I think the first one sums up why:

Aren’t you sick of politics yet? I sure am. Is this any way to elect a leader?

Short answers: No, and Yes. The long answers are much more esoteric.

I’m not sick of it because it’s all about people. Mostly, it’s about 4-5 people who are running around like crazed cats trying to suck other people’s time and energy into their cause. Why do people get into this stuff? There are many reasons. The energy of the process is like one slo-mo Superbowl, a surprisingly feminine courtship and foreplay ritual punctuated by masculine displays of support, effort, and elation. There’s something for everyone in this, and if you’re interested in meeting a mate of your preference it’s not a bad thing to get involved in.

But we are electing a leader, after all. It does seem a bit silly, but in the end our system of government is a kind of belief system. All of the candidates call us to a kind of faith, a belief in a nation that is either about Christian values, service, or the simple idea that anything really is still possible. Policy naturally flows from the guts, not the head, and there will be plenty of time for the details.

I like to say that any effective work of writing has something for the heart and arm and brain, to quote the great Stan Rogers. Politics is not any different. This is a time for the heart and the arm, making your beliefs into a reality. Later, the heart and brain will have to work out the details. Then it’s all arm as we get down to business. These things all come in time, and they are all the aspects of our life. Like any event, a strong half-step back can give any of us the space we need to see it from afar but the proximity to still wade deep into the joy of the moment. Yeah, I love it.

This week I went on about a fave local issue, the possibility of rail transit in my hometown of Saint Paul. It’s a snooze to most people, but I hope you can see why I went on like a madman when the I-35W bridge went down last August – I’m into this stuff.

I fear you might be right after all about the Central Corridor, but if you are then what comes next?

Sadly, I fear we will have to stare at each other for a while, trying to focus a laser light of blame on anyone that gets within range of our eyesight. I’ve worked long and hard behind the scenes to prevent it, but everyone thinks I’m crazy. There seems to be this belief that if the people in charge want something to happen, they will find a way to make it happen. All I can say is that many of the same people surely wanted that bridge to stay up, and they couldn’t even make that happen.

Faith in our government should have reasonable limits, and we have an not just a right but an obligation to ask hard questions and be informed. The sides here have been pro-train and anti-train, and if you dare question the wisdom of Those Who Install Trains you must be anti-train. Or crazy. It’s the great divide of America writ very, very small. We will have to get past that somehow, and I fear it will take desperation to do so. Look how many people had to die in Iraq and how many foreclosures had to happen before we realized how poisonous the atmosphere is in Washington – and how we have to get past it if we’re ever going to get doodley-squat done.

That’s my mailbag for the week. Sorry it was anything but Super, but I work with what I got. Perhaps I have to write stuff you like better, if you’re all sick of politics. Just remember what Jay Leno once said, “Poly, as in the Greek word for many, and Tics as in bloodsuckers”. If nothing else, ya gotta check yer legs after going into the woods on that one.

If you wish I had more mail to respond to, send me some! I love it when people tell me what an idiot I am, or how I nailed something not seen anywhere else. Usually, it falls inbetween, and we can talk. Send me your thought as wabbitoid47 at yahoo.com and perhaps we can chat!