As I write this, the second Presidential Debate is pending. Many people are looking forward to this event because they want to know where the candidates stand on the important issues. Others are hoping that the candidate they back does something dramatic to “win” the debate. How important is all of this?
Actually, like many of the big shows in our culture, it’s not very important at all.
It should come as no surprise that the Vice Presidential Debate didn’t move the polls away from their recent tilt towards Obama. The first debate may have shown a slight advantage for Obama afterwards, but it’s been buried in a longer term trend his way since Americans started worrying about the economy.
Away from the art of polling, however, it’s unlikely that anyone has made up their minds based on a debate in a very long time based simply on the nature of the debates themselves. The main goal is always to not screw up, and candidates have done an admirable job of projecting adequacy since Gerald Ford made a gaff about Polish freedom in 1976. Once a debate is properly survived, it’s up to the machine that is running the election for the candidate. As long as everyone tries to neutralize debates, they will remain neutral.
What matters most are not the policy statements that are made or the zingers. What counts is the organization on the ground and how effective it is at targeting key groups, state by state. Given that the electoral map comes down to a few states that are very close, the key votes are being gathered one voter at a time. The appeal through commercials and mailings is the “air war”, but the “ground war” of individuals who knock on doors in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and others are the key.
That’s where the Obama campaign is winning this election in a big way. Yes, the economic downturn has definitely made everyone more receptive to Democrats, just as it did in 1992. But the people who feel they are getting screwed in all of this need to show up on election day. That’s where a “Get Out The Vote” (GOTV) effort is essential, and that takes people. Millions of volunteers need to call, doorknock, and drive the vans that get people out.
The people that Obama is trying to get out are, generally, the disaffected. Specifically, they are the young and minorities, just as I said they would back in March. The organization is in place to reach the targeted 45% of the vote being people born after the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Not only is this a generational change in the electorate, but it’s a generational change in how they are being reached.
Social networks, including facebook and twitter, are being used to recruit volunteers and get information out. David Plouffe, Obama’s Campaign Manager, talks about the grassroots strategy directly to the followers using YouTube. His most recent talk is a bit more centered on national trends and issues, but they are attempting to close the deal now that the sale has been made. The people that made it did it the old fashioned way, one person at a time.
This is the networked organizational structure that we can expect from a President who clearly identifies with Gen-X and the Millenials. What this election is about is not who we elect as President, per se, but what a President is and does. This is a change away from the top-down imperial presidency to a more modern approach based on associations and skills.
Have you heard about any of this in the debates? No, not at all. But this is the real issue in this election. And that proves that the debates are largely unimportant.
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare 
This seems a bit too cynical for me. I want to know what they are going to do as president, and that’s a big part of the debate. How can that not be important?
Do they really say what they will do? In this time of economic crisis, have we heard a N-Point Economic Plan with the specifics we all crave at a debate?
No, we don’t. There are two problems with detailed plans such as we’d all like to know about. The first is that someone is likely to be upset about one or more of the points, meaning there’s a risk of alienating those key interest groups in a few states that decide the election. The second problem is that if you do present a highly sanitized plan that has no risk, it’s a major snooze-fest.
If detailed plans were essential to a Presidental campaign, John Kerry would be President right now. He didn’t really come all that close.
I pointed out before that the 1932 platform of FDR wasn’t all the detailed and much of it wasn’t followed at all. We’ve gotten slightly more vapid over time, but not as much as you might think. Like many human activities, this comes down to tribal identities and getting your tribe to show up. For us Dems, that’s the kids this time.
Policy? If they want to discuss it, I’m ready – just not holding my breath.
Nope, the debates won’t influence my choice. But still: they are historic! We’re seeing the debates of the first African American president in history. Someday when I’m old (and greyer than I am now) I’ll get to brag to the young people that I watched all of those debates and felt proud of my future president (for a change…hasn’t been the case since before 1980). They are Senators so they suffer from inability to talk directly to voters instead of down to them, but this format is SO much better than the past – getting real questions from real voters.
Becoming more and more apparent is the swing-state ILLEGAL purging of eligible voters that seem to be concentrated in traditionally vote Democrat! Christy–you’re not gray!