I was wrong – and happily so. The September jobs report shows a net gain of 109k jobs, far ahead of the 40k predicted in Barataria. The August job growth figure of no net job creation at all was revised up (yes, up!) to 57k jobs created that month. Clearly, whatever happened at the end of the summer was a bump in the road.
Being wrong is no crime as long as you learn from it. So let’s go through and figure out what must be happening to miss so badly.
October is always a scary month for stocks. The profits from summer months spent lounging at the beach are never all that great and the cold winds of autumn remind everyone that the carefree daze are gone. As the numbers roll in at the start of October there is a natural tipping point in the stock market – the time when, if it’s gonna go down it will.
This year there is an intensity around the numbers that is probably an even bigger predictor of failure. When greed is beating fear no one really cares about something as techno as data. When everyone feels good, why not throw a party? Numbers, themselves, are cold and hard and always ready to disappoint. This October is setting itself up for a bad time ahead.
But it’s good that everyone is finally watching.
In a world that is changing rapidly how do you keep up with everything? The answer, for many people, is continuous education – which translates into a steady stream of seminars under the glow of PowerPoint presentations. Keep drinking in the knowledge dispensed by experts, the theory runs, and you will always be on the leading edge of the changes around you.
Sad that it doesn’t really work. Well, maybe it does for some people, but certainly not everyone.
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare 