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Monthly Archives: March 2013

The Managed Depression – Update

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I recently wrote this piece for submission to a mainstream media outlet, but it was rejected.  I’d like to present it here.

Economic health, like personal health, starts with honesty.  When something is wrong a good diagnosis is the first step towards the proper cure and a strong recovery.  Our economy is been deep in what is commonly called a “Great Recession”. That strange term is a substitute for the dreaded word that most of us know is the true condition – a depression.

That “D-word” may be feared, but it should not be.  It simply points to different and more unusual treatment than we are used to.  History will eventually come to know our present economy as what I call a “Managed Depression” – unusual among similar stages in the business cycle in that this one has been carefully managed.

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St Patrick’s Day

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This piece is a repeat from three years ago – I don’t have anything to add.  The re-run gives me more time to enjoy the day.  Sláinte!

Good people go to Heaven, but the Celts went everywhere. There isn’t a corner of the globe where you can’t find us if you look hard enough. Nations as far flung as Canada and Australia are largely Celtic in origin, and the majority of those Celts came from Ireland.

Our people have wandered the earth like almost no other, and for one day we all return home with the help of a hyphen. Many of us become Irish-Americans or Irish-Canadians on Saint Patrick’s day when any other day American or Canadian would be enough. We drink up well in pubs, cheer on the bagpipers, and think back to what our ancestors must have gone through to get us where we are.

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Jubilee – Cancel Debt!

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There has been a lot of good economic news lately, at least compared to the very bad news of a few years ago.  But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t bad things worth keeping a close eye on – especially those that predict future action by the Federal Reserve.

The velocity of the US Dollar – the number of times per year that money turns over through the economy – continues to drop without an end in sight.  This is a worrying sign because it suggests that most of the economic growth we are seeing comes from money that is being more or less printed by the Fed.  It also suggests that there will be another round of quantitative easing, or even more money printed.  There has to be a better way – and this wouldn’t be Barataria if we didn’t take a stab at how.

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Inequality Becomes Intolerable

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How bad has wealth inequality become in the US?  Thanks to a video that is becoming viral, a new discussion about inequality has fired up – sadly, just after our election cycle.  It takes off from work done 6 months ago by Dan Ariely and Mike Norton, first reported humbly in a simple blog.  But thanks to new graphics and explanation it’s lighting up the ‘net in a way not seen before.

As discussed previously, income and wealth inequality is the best indicator of a future slowdown in economic growth around the world.  More attention to this problem is certainly a good thing.  But the context of how this comes to be and what can be done about it remains elusive.  Let’s take a long view and see where the problem came from – and what can be done about it as we work to set up the next period of expansion that comes after the Managed Depression we are in now.

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DJIA: Yes and/or No

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) keeps setting new record highs.  Does this mean the Managed Depression is over?  The short answer is “yes”, but the long answer is “no”.

The case for a “yes” is that this is based on the solid progress that we have been waiting for, and it’s backed by some strong numbers.  The “no” is that we’re still judging ourselves against either the depths of the worst part of the depression, or in the case of the DJIA a 6-year old record – it should be about 30% higher or more in that time.  But what counts is that this is based on strong corporate profits at least as much as a lack of any other place to put money and the trends should continue – unless the Federal government does something stupid.  Where do you want to put your money on that one?

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