What is the best way to describe our economic situation? If you look at the popular press, the term that is gaining truck lately is “Great Recession”, a term that refers to the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1929-1937. But isn’t a really bad Recession just one way of defining a “Depression”? Well, maybe, but that would involve using that dreaded “D word”. That kind of cowardice, the inability to call the situation what it is, lies at the heart of why we aren’t capable of dealing with it properly – which is why it continues to get worse.
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Economics and commerce, all built from scratch.
Patently Absurd
The economy continues to lumber along, perhaps turning a corner without actually creating much in the way of new jobs. We never know just where we stand until it’s in our rearview mirror.. One thing that has perked up lately is talk about innovation as a way out of the mess we’re in. Obama is pitching $30B for small business lending on the grounds that this is where innovation, and thus jobs, are created. So far, so good. But the spirit of innovation in the USofA needs a lot more than that if it is going to be the engine of new growth and new jobs.
Starts with an Excuse
What would make a recovery sustainable? If you ask an economist, they’d tell you that what makes any economy grow and prosper is, ultimately, what they call “productivity gains”. That’s the ability to make more with less that allows a people to propser. During the 1990s this was given as the reason why interest rates could remain low and we could have one Hell of a party – a sloppy, hazy bender. We live in the hangover that resulted, but have we really learned how intoxicating this one, simple idea is?
Popular Front
President Obama has finally taken a more populist tone on the economy by proposing that the TARP money given to the financial institutions in the midst of crisis be repaid by a special tax on large banks. It’s a good start, but only a start. What matters is how this plays out over the next few weeks and whether or not it catches on. Less obvious, however, is that support of this approach is going to be good politics for everyone as we head into an election year, Democrats and Republicans alike.
Cookies for Santa
We’ve had a lot of sweet economic news lately. The Gross Domestic Product was announced to have grown at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, which even after it was revised down to 2.8% seems like a decent number. The number of new unemployment claims was down to 474k last week, and the unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 10.0%. It’s all good, right?
Plus, we have less than two weeks until Santa arrives! Better make cookies!