The editor of an online publication revealed more than a little frustration.  “Whenever we ask for a piece on the economy,” he told me over lunch, “We either get a story on how nothing is happening or on gas prices.”  This was in the summer of 2010, which we now know was close to the bottom of the economy and the point where everything was just starting to turn around.

There wasn’t anything happening then, except for gasoline prices.  They went up and down in a kind of rhythm that defied just about everything, as they do today.

The normal fluctuations of something as basic as gasoline can become a partisan issue, at least to the extent that one party has something to capitalize on.  This election year, however, the constant up and down of the price of gasoline won’t make it because people don’t know who to blame, they are less dependent on gasoline, and it has the potential for serious blow-back on the Republicans.

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Those of you who are regular readers know that one of the basic principles of Barataria is that over the long haul there are very few surprises.  Great empires come and go, economies hum along and then break, and new technologies add sparkle to our lives – but people are still people.  When we take a strong half-step back, far enough for some perspective but not so far back we can’t keep our hands dirty, just about anything starts to make sense.

Today’s piece is a small summary of one small part of a breathtaking interview with Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, conducted by Kate Welling and published by John Mauldin.  The original article is a must read, but it takes hours to read, digest, and re-read.  But there is one part that demands more discussion – and has a killer graph.

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Any analysis of national elections always comes down to a few “Swing States”.  These are the states that are not reliably in one camp or another but are up for grabs.  None of them has characterized the national elections better than Ohio, a state that had 20 Electoral Votes through the 2000s – a fairly rich prize.  It has served as a valuable “bellwether”, picking the winner consistently for some time.  As chaotic as our national politics has been, Ohio has seen it all.

But the story of Ohio might well come down to a very simple analysis itself.  The economy of Ohio, specifically the state of jobs, may tell the whole story despite all the smoke and noise that accompanies elections.  It is a tale of a Depression, running its course through the heartland of America since at least the year 2000.

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