Democrats on the Sideline

We had a lot of fun talking through the ways that the Republican Party is self-destructing through this election year.  But what about the Democrats?

The competitive system at the core of our Democratic Republic functions to the extent that the two major parties stake out different sides of important issues and duke them out through an election, when the people of the nation get to weigh in.  But what happens when one side is wallowing in irrelevance and the other side has little to say one way or another?  Citizens who might otherwise vote are confused, angry, or simply apathetic and stay home.  When one party loses its way, it’s up to the other one to capitalize on the moment and present its platform.

That is unlikely to happen as the Republicans square off against the Not-Republicans, aka Democrats.  The vagueness of Occupy Wall Street made into a platform, of sorts – and historically pretty much what the party has usually been without strong leadership.

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Republicans’ Crash & Burn

How bad can it get for Republicans?  The short answer is “much worse”.  The long answer is “much, much worse”.

There are many ways that the party of Reagan is screwing up right now, and any one of them would cause the Gipper to shake his head in shame.  Taken together, however, it is just about impossible to recognize the party itself – let alone a path to victory.

With nine months left until the election there is always a chance they’ll get it together, of course.  There’s also a good chance that we’re about to see nine months of unscripted slapstick passing itself off as “politics”.  Here is a list of what is going horribly wrong:

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Back to Even

It came as a shock – the pleasant kind of surprise that sent the stock market soaring to levels not seen in a long time.  The January employment report, released last Friday, showed a growth of 240k jobs last month.  It was good news for everyone, but especially for President Obama.  The story of the first three years of his Presidency has now been written in the job reports:

One year down, two years back up.  We’re back to even and working to get ahead.

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Negative Interest

Modern finance has seen many innovations in the last 20 years.  The Black-Scholes-Merton theory promised risk-free investment if it was properly hedged, or insured through market based options.  That spawned a whole new category of investment in derivatives, or re-selling of insurance that nearly anything might go wrong.  There were always new places to put money through the last generation as new concepts of “investment” were created.  But through it all, there was one constant: there is a time value to money, which is to say that money today is paid for tomorrow plus a little bit more  – call it “interest”.

No longer.  Debt from large, secure nations is being sold at net negative interest rates, meaning that those with money are actually paying to lend it.  Money today is worth less than money in the future.  The implications of this are staggering.

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Drugs

“Just say ‘No!’.” Drugs have not been discussed frankly and openly in US politics since the Controlled Substances Act of 1970 was passed. The framework passed then set up five categories or “schedules” of drugs based on their medical use and potential for abuse and how they would be regulated. Over the years laws that reinforce this regulatory structure have been passed and criminal penalties raised and lowered, but the basic concept has remained solid.

Since that time, however, many changes have occurred on the fringes of “drug” use in the US. Tobacco use has been banned from most public places and drinking ages were raised to curb their use. Prescription drug abuse has become an epidemic. Caffeine consumption has roughly tripled and is now available in high purity. Even marijuana, criminalized since 1937, has become de facto legal in several states.

Treatment programs are available for anyone who wants to stop using any of these “drugs”, but some of them have to watch out for the laws that stand in their way. Is it time to completely revamp how we regulate and criminalize “drugs”?

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