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Journalism and other myths.

Inequality vs Sustainable Growth

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Is wealth and income inequality holding the economy back?  A recent study by the Pew Foundation shows that from 2009-2011 the wealthiest 7% of the US saw their net worth climb 24% – to an average of nearly $3.2M – while the other 93% of the population saw their wealth plummet 7%.  More than being unfair, it may also be holding back economic growth overall.  The rich may be happy with their take, but it may stop coming.

A number of studies have shown the effect over a number of countries, and the effect is undeniable.  At what point does income and/or wealth inequality slow growth?  Like an excess of debt it’s hard to say, but the two taken together lead to a compelling argument that the search for sustainable, meaningful growth is a strongly bipartisan, left and right issue – and something we should get moving on as a priority.

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At the Break, Hometown Team Leads

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How is that recovery going for you?  Overall, the first quarter of 2013 has been a decent one.  Nothing is moving very quickly, but we are seeing progress.  It’s time to check back on the predictions Barataria made for the year and see how we are doing.

Back at the start of the year, it seemed as if the recovery had something to prove.  2012 was not a bad year, but it was only the foundation of a recovery.  A little bit of faith that things were getting better certainly had  a lot to do with Obama winning re-election, among other things.  But 2013 is indeed shaping up to be the year the recovery starts to seem real.

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Perhaps, a Revolt?

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“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
– Henry Ford

In case you were wondering what the cost is of “Too Big to Fail” banks, the Federal Reserve has an answer – $440 million (about $4 for every household in the US).  If that seems low, well, it is.  It’s just what it costs to have “enhanced regulation” of those banks that have been declared “systemic” – legalese for protected by you and I.

Where did that number come from?  It comes at the end of a long, watered-down process that has finally defined just what it means to be one of the protected investment banks. It’s all the result of Dodd-Frank regulation that does more harm than good if this is all they can manage.  But perhaps we can make a bit more out of it …

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Gold Down for the Long Run?

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“The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs.  In the long run we are all dead.”
– John Maynard Keynes

A step back can be very illuminating, especially in economics.  History teaches us an awful lot when we are willing to pay attention to what it says to us (which is almost never).  The long run is also a good way to get away from current fashions, trends, and all the ways that everyone can fool themselves.  Of course, as Keynes tells us, you run the risk of making a completely different mistake in the process.  At least no two economists ever agree on anything, so there’s plenty of wiggle room.

It’s the bigger version of your typical financial reporting – “Stocks fell today on news that blah blah blah …”  when in fact it was just a drippy grey April day in New York and everyone felt lousy.

A decade-plus trend, the increasing price of gold, is coming to a spectacular end.  This may mean something very important – if it’s not the last gasp of the last bubble to work its way through our system.

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Banking (and Insurance) Should Be Boring

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Man Behind Desk:  “Mr. Brain, As you know, we here at Fiero & Company are re-re-insurers.    We provide insurance to re-insurers, who insure insurance companies.”
Brain:  “Is that lucrative?”
Man:  “Take a look.” (opens drawer)
Brain:  (big eyed smile) “Ahem!”
– Pinky and the Brain, S1E2, “Of Mice and Man”

One of the basic principles of Barataria is that “Banking should be boring”.  The main argument against financial regulation is that it stifles innovation.  Yet that hallmark of the 2000s has been the source of excessive risk and nearly all the trouble we find ourselves in today.  When banking is boring, the world is quiet and stable and those of us not in financial dealings have a decent chance of actually getting ahead.

The same is true of insurance.  That’s not only true as a matter of policy, it’s apparently true as a matter of making a lot of dough.

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