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Part Time Work

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Part-time work is a part of the economy.  A first job might be just a few hours after school, and parents often find themselves only able to work while the kids are in school.  Some people want only part-time work while they get their “real career” together, such as an artist who waits tables to pay the bills.  But in an economic downturn, people get stuck with fewer hours than they want and the ranks swell.

When we discussed the employment figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) here in Barataria, the “Part Time for Economic Reasons” really stuck in the craw of many readers, and for good reasons.  That number has to come down from 5.3% of all employed persons before we can be excited about the jobs reports.  The San Francisco Federal Reserve had the same feeling, and has released a new report with some fascinating details on part-time work in the US and what it is today.

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Government 101

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What does it take for a developing nation to move ahead and join the ranks of the developed world?  For all the tremendous advances for at least some developing nations in the last decade or more, there is still a gap.  Brazil is not quite developed nation yet on the eve of their 2 year long coming out party due to start with the World Cup next year.  It’s not that the people aren’t trying, it’s not that the nation doesn’t want to be there.  It’s that it’s hard, dedicated work.  It’s that … the problem is almost too simple to understand.

The fundamentals of running a government always seem to slip between the cracks of the politics that define any nation.  The US is no different from any other in that regard – look no further than the calls to first push us over a “fiscal cliff” and now perhaps shut down the government for the lack of a budget (or continuing resolution).  But that’s what it’s all about, regardless.  And in developing nations we can see what the global leadership crisis really looks like – a lack of Government 101.

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Retail “Challenges”

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The news whacked Wall Street and set off a slide of 1.4%.  WalMart, the biggest retailer, reported slow growth and earnings below expectations for the second quarter.  “The retail environment remains challenging in the U.S. and our international markets, as customers are cautious in their spending,” according to Chief Financial Officer Charles Holley.  Should we be worried about it?

Probably not.  While a turnaround consumer spending would be the quickest and easiest way to goose the economy and put people back to work, it shouldn’t come at the expense of fundamentals such as repairing household finances.  A little caution now could make for a stronger economy in the long run – and that picture is continuing to look a bit brighter.

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Chair(wo)man of the Fed

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Who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?  It’s come down to two people as far as anyone can tell, Larry Summers and Janet Yellen.  Or, sometimes more accurately, Larry Summers and not Larry Summers.   This is a terrible shame because no person has done more to earn the post than Yellen.

Yet Summers seems to remain Obama’s choice for the job despite growing opposition.   On the other side, support is growing in the popular press for Yellen as an opportunity to break the glass ceiling for women.  It’s heating up as a battle that Obama may avoid by picking a third candidate that no one is concentrating on now, but the loss would be terrible if Yellen doesn’t get the nod.  Here’s why.

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What is Employment?

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There’s been a lot of good economic news lately, the second year in a row that July uncharacteristically surged ahead.   The “ISM Index” poll of manufacturers looked more positive than it has since 2008, even with a strong US Dollar.  Initial claims for unemployment fell to 326k last week, another low since 2008.  US GDP grew at 1.7% in 2Q13, not exactly great news but far better than expected (and accompanied upward revisions to previous quarters).  The ADP employment report showed a net gain of 200k jobs, the rosiest figure of them all.  Only 82k of those came from small businesses, with large companies gaining a new high of 60k jobs added – meaning that for the first time since 2008 big companies are in a hiring mood.

By the time you read this, the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July should have come out, and it should be roughly in line with the more smooth ADP figure.  Now that we are really turning a corner, as Barataria expected in 2013, it’s time to take an in-depth look at what “employment” means and why there’s still so very far to go.

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