It Works Out – Because of the Bad Stuff

Over the past year, we’ve been discussing how the current depression might end.  Two distinct scenarios have emerged as the likely candidates – a slow return to work for everyone as small companies complete a transition to a new economy and a collapse of the world’s economic system.  Which will it be?

There is plenty of evidence for both.  The decline in people of working age in the developed world (and soon the developing!) points to more opportunity and higher wages once everything evens out – something like a golden age.  But the recent World Economic Forum and ongoing trauma in Europe highlight the obvious weakness at the top, starting with leadership.

The best answer for crystal ball readers is an obvious one – both might happen simultaneously.  That’s not a punt, it’s a statement of deep belief that, in the long run, the Free Market is probably going to work.

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Next Generation, Waiting

There has been little doubt that employment has been improving in the US.  From the trough three years ago 5M jobs have been created.  That’s not enough to fill the 12M or so that need to be created, but it’s a start – and it’s been steady progress.  But who is being left behind as the situation (very) slowly improves?

The most important group are the young who are looking for their first job.  Those 20-24 have a lifetime of expectations and habits created by the start of their career, and by any measure their outlook is not good.  While the economy transforms itself into whatever will create the next wave of opportunity the young are being left behind.  This is true throughout the developed world, particularly in Greece and Spain, but the problem is also acute here.  Let’s start by defining the problem.

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While Europe Burns

It’s been a long time since I wrote about Europe.  How many ways can a humble blogger say, “Nothing has really changed”?  Nothing has.  Currency union has turned into a straightjacket of austerity and the European Union is plunging into a deep recession.  The only true news has been a day of protest across Europe, fueled in part by the now 25% unemployment rate in Spain and other nations.  It has become a full meltdown.

But so far, no banks have failed.  Isn’t that wonderful?

There are several potential problems for the US as this continues, but the most important is its effect on our trade.  Yet, for all the trouble in Europe, it may not affect us at all.  Can Europe burn while the US stands by?  The short answer is sure, why not.  Here’s why:

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Restructuring Our Economy

It’s time for a repeat – this one from 18 months ago, but it still needs to be said.  Over and over.

It’s one thing to complain about the economy – anyone can do that.  But what should be done to fix it?  Longtime readers know that I believe that our economic situation is a Managed Depression and that only a fundamental restructuring will end it.  This is my Six Point Plan to do exactly that.  It describes action by the Federal Government, which is to say that it is a political platform – meaning it is incomplete and taken from a certain perspective.  If you have questions, please follow the links.

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Ice This Thing

In any close basketball game, the last few minutes take just about forever.  There are strategic time-outs to regroup and plan, and there are numerous fouls given by the team behind just to get the ball back.  An election is no different, and Hurricane Sandy is the timeout needed by Team Obama to ice the win.

But they had the lead going into it.  The economic reports coming out this week show the score very clearly, and it’s definitely Obama’s game to lose.  As the press starts to bubble how big the lead is and Romney starts to foul out, we can see how this developed very clearly over the long summer – as was noted in Barataria all along.

The real difference between an election and a hoop game is that not many people know how to keep score.

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