A new year means a new start. Resolutions are made and we all hope to be better people. it’s also a time for predictions, which shrewd people can write in a way to not look bad in another 363 days. It’s not just about making them vague and easily attained, no – a good prediction can be an excuse for not being a better person.
That’s my way of saying that we can expect a lot of ugly in 2019, but we shouldn’t let that get us down. here’s what I see happening in the year ahead. Bookmark this and make fun of me if you want.
Labor Day is brought to you by those who brought you the weekend – Organized Labor.
When I worked in Germany for a short time in the 1990s, labor relations often came up. Some of my colleagues were envious of the US system while most hated it. All of them, however, had a term for what they understood our core principle to be – “Hire and Fire”. The idea of an “at will” employee with no job security in law and no loyalty by tradition was alien to Germans.
Compared to the nations in the developed world which we compete with, our position is unusual. It’s a bias at the foundation of our system – a natural outcome of the demand for a flexible workforce. This is also likely to change as more and more skill is needed to do the jobs of tomorrow.
Predictions of the future are often tricky. It requires an extrapolation of a trend from today to some kind of logical conclusion, taking into account how the object changing connects to the rest of the world. There’s a real showmanship to it all, too, when you start from the logical conclusion and then explain yourself backwards.
Cities will be radically different by 2050, with zoning codes and concepts that are more flexible and the corresponding buildings will have many uses on top of each other. Suburbs, as we know them now, will require extensive rehabilitation that will work well in some places but create wastelands in others.
See how it works? This is simply the logical conclusion of a flexible workforce and a fast-paced economy with people changing careers often. Should all that come to pass, our cities will have to have more flexible structures and more agile concepts of zoning. We can easily imagine how that might look because that is what cities were like before zoning came along about 100 years ago.
With the Superbowl done, the nation settles in to the depths of Winter. This has been a hard time of year for many reason, not just the sudden end of football. The last few years have been harder to take than what the Panther fans are feeling about now.
This year? It may yet be worse, according to prognosticators. Then again, the worst may be over. Let’s update last year’s big stories to see how this year is coming along to see if there’s reason to hope.
With 2015 out of the way, it’s time to look forward. But as we’ve shown many times, the best way to draw a line into the future is an extrapolation from the past. Such is the real tradition at New Year’s – looking back and ahead at the same time.
Besides, the stillness of the present time moment is usually more of a hangover.
By the time you read this, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) has probably raised their benchmark Fed Funds rate and given guidance for the next few years. More importantly, everyone has freaked out one way or the other and the stock and bond markets have probably done something that has everyone puzzled.
We still live in a financial world that defies expectations. It has to be “experienced”, just like the various things you did in your mis-spent youth that built “character”. The question becomes – what great wisdom are we learning from all of this?
We’ve spent a lot of time talking about workers – where they have been beaten up for the last 40 years and how the last 15 years have if anything been worse. We outlined a way out of the problem as well by taking on the overhead per employee in an effort to make labor cheaper.
But what about capital? While this has been a good time to be rich there hasn’t been a good place to invest money, leaving much of it parked on the sidelines. Part of the prediction for a big change after 2017 is a big turnaround in investment, which has been low lately. Where will that money come from?