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It was a tough election for Democrats. Welcome to a roughly biennial tradition of recapping where my party is falling down – and what we need to do to pick up the pieces.
This is clearly a work of opinion, but it will be as informed as possible. Naturally, you may disagree and have your own additions. Please, by all means, this has to be a conversation about the future – of our party and our nation.
Will the Senate go Republican? Nearly everyone believes it is likely, and has for a long time. It’s hard to see how that will be any different from today, given the ability to filibuster absolutely anything in that body.
Beyond Democrats and Republicans, there is a third option that is growing – some kind of independent fueled chaos and perhaps a heavy dose of Joe Biden in the works. The possibilities are absolutely delicious for many reasons. Not only would it give us all something to write about, a Senate in chaos would probably more accurately reflect the mood of the nation. Here’s how it goes.
This is a piece first run for the election four years ago, updated a bit for today.
Election Day is not a national holiday, at least not in the traditional sense. But it is the one day that our nation asks something from all of us, even if it’s just a few minutes. If you follow calle ocho through Little Havana in Miami on Election Day, you’ll see a long line houses with the red white and blue of US and Cuban flags stretching off into the horizon. Families sometimes come together across generations, as with any holiday, before they go off to vote. Cuban exiles in Miami are a people that know what it means to be free because freedom and good times are often best measured against their opposite.
The election is a week away. It’s time to make a few predictions and offer some analysis, if only so that everyone can make fun of me when this is all over.
Regular readers know how much disdain I have for the horserace that characterizes most of the reporting, but in the end it comes down to that. Still, there are many issues revolving around the ability to call this thing properly that are fascinating, at least to someone too far into it. My fondest hope is that at least some of them break in ways that defy conventional wisdom and shake things up.
Ready?
The Presidential election is tightening. That’s only to be expected as we get closer, especially through the debate weeks. It was predicted here that Romney simply showing up and looking like a human would give him a bounce after weeks of demonizing, and he did better than that. Obama will have to find his A-Game to seal this thing.
But it is still Obama’s to lose. The “toss-up” states are nearly all ones that Romney should be ahead in already, and he will have to win almost all of them to pull this thing out. The big money is going to continue to flee his campaign and look to the more interesting races, particularly for the US House.
The race for the House is very close by the only measure we have, the Generic Congressional Ballot. That could make for something very interesting this January no matter which party manages to pull it out. In a big world of speculation this is worth thinking through.
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare 