Tale of Two Reports

It was the best of reports, it was the worst of reports.  The story of jobs in the USofA continues to wind down like a Dickens novel, crammed of details and well defined moments lush with feeling and energy but lacking a strong, driving plot.  We know when it ends, of course – somewhere many pages from now in the election in November.  Exactly how it goes down is entirely another question.

But for August we have two job reports.  The ADP report showed a private employment gain of 200k, a wonderfully robust gain that suggests a strong economy is really turning the corner.  The official household survey from the Department of Labor came in with an incredibly weak 96k jobs gained, a number that is not really treading water.  Why the discrepancy?  What is the real state of jobs?  How will this play in the election?

Keep reading.  This novel is far from done.

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Labor Day – Holding On

This Labor Day is more important than most.  It signals the start of the endgame of the election, the time when everything starts to count even more because everyone is paying attention.  And this year, what people are paying attention to more than anything is labor itself – the state of jobs.

Barataria has dealt with the job market many times over the summer.  While there is a net gain in jobs over the Obama administration the growth in jobs barely absorbs the young people entering the workforce.  It’s not exactly the material for a strong re-election.  But that’s not all there is to the jobs picture.

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Job Excitement!

The July jobs report, and boy was it good!  163k jobs were added in July, far more than the 96k predicted (the same as last year).  The summer doldrums are apparently not hitting as hard in 2012 after all.

It’s not fantastic growth by any measure, but it means that we are still treading water – not drowning counts for something, at least.  More importantly, it got us out of the pattern where the summer slowdown sat on the economy like a mini-recession that gave us little hope for the pick-up in Autumn.

What changed?  It’s hard to say.  But we can make a few guesses.

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