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Economy Still Ahead at the Half

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It’s halftime!  2013 is half over, and data for another quarter is in.  It’s time to check in on Barataria’s predictions for the year and see how things are going.

The mainstream press has already latched onto the story of a recovery that is slow but gaining strength, so this is hardly news anymore.  But exactly how and why it is strong remains important in many ways.  This is a restructuring more than a traditional recovery after a recession, so it takes a lot of time.  The foundation has to be laid before the new economy can be framed on top of it.  That foundation came through in 2012, but progress has to continue in key areas to make it possible for the jump to a new boomtime around 2017 or so.

Break out the expensive commercials and grill the burgers, we have a game!

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The Rhyme of Texas History

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Senator Wendy Davis knew exactly what she was getting into.  Her stand was to be a 13 hour test of endurance, constantly speaking without any food or water.  Since she couldn’t even sit, a back brace reinforced her spine.  Her feet that would carry the load were shorn with pink running shoes, the uniform of a marathoner.  She girded herself for the physical strain of a filibuster, the only way to stop SB5, a series of restrictions on abortion that would close 37 of the 42 clinics in the state if passed.  The rights of all women of Texas were on the line, and Senator Davis would not yield.

On a warm day 177 years earlier Jim Bowie heard the army of General Santa Anna was approaching San Antonio.  Though he was ailing, he readied for the fight.  He and 188 other men made their last stand for freedom in the mission known as the Alamo.   After a 13 day siege, Santa Anna’s troops stormed in and slaughtered them all.  But the process wasted 3 weeks, giving Sam Houston time to organize – and the news of the slaughter confirmed it was now a death match.  They would either win their freedom or die trying.  The Texans rallied and eventually won their independence.

Senator Wendy Davis’ fight is not over, and with a new special session it is likely to end in defeat.  But like the Alamo, sometimes a battle lost is a war won.

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Wealth is How You Feel

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Around the world, two stories have been consistent since 2008 – the developed world is struggling with a depression while the developing world largely charges ahead.  The two worlds have never been so far apart as the careen towards similarity.  But in this hemisphere, three stories have come to show where it all comes together – how “wealthy” is what a nation feels more than how it is.

Forget how Japan and Europe are wallowing in desperation for a while – on this side of the big ponds things are happening.  It may be slower than anyone wants, but change is happening.  The reactions to that change show that my favorite saying is still true – that while people are people, cultures are cultures.  Wealth, or at least the feeling of wealth, is a state of mind.

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Cold Currency War

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In the Cold War, the foundation of diplomacy was mutual fear and hatred.  With that behind us, interdependence  has introduced a new system which includes much closer relationships – and something more like angst and loathing.  So has our relationship with China evolved.

As China has awakened, the GDP has grown by a factor of ten since 1990.   The population went from 22% urban to 52%.  All of this came at the expense, and mutual support, of hungry US consumers, corporations, and our nearly limitless need to finance our debt.  It was too much, too quickly, and wise investors saw that it was a bubble ready to pop – or at least relax the insane pace.

That day is coming very soon.

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Reasonable Expectation of Privacy?

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The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
– The Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution

The documents were carefully selected for their ability to illustrate the problem without being sensational or personal.  The exit strategy led to Hong Kong, with a long tradition of free speech but under the control of the US’ one serious non-friend, China.  The leak was given to the Guardian, a non-US publication with a history of defending speech and privacy.  All of this is the work of a methodical mind turning himself over completely to what he believes is simply the right thing to do.

Edward Snowden is a hero, and a very smart one at that.  A petition has already started for a Presidential pardon, and I hope you will sign it.

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