Cooperation, Not Combat

The trade war with China accelerates as the Trump administration’s latest tariffs have been matched. Talks have broken down, and Trump seems to think that the taxes are paid by China, not US consumers. He’s not going to back down anytime soon.

Where does it stop? If the end goal is an even trade between the two nations, it’s not actually possible to accomplish it this way – unless it drops to zero. There are systemic problems in world trade generally and China specifically which create this issue that can and must be worked out. A competent administration would do that hard work and create a world that is much more even all around.

But no, we’d all rather just bully our way to prosperity or something.

Continue reading

Strong Dollar

As this year develops, the economy is stronger than it has been in a long time. Yet the process of spreading out the wealth and creating strong growth has yet to come together. While there is little doubt that our image of the economy is changing, some important things have not. The most important aspect of our economy, that it works for everyone with some degree of equity, is not changing much. That will keep our politics in turmoil for some time to come.

The reason for this is simple: the US Dollar is incredibly strong and is likely to remain so for years. This means that manufacturing, the life blood of the heartland, will not return soon. The anger over this, blaming China and Mexico and everything except the automation and accumulation of wealth which really drives it, will certainly continue.

Continue reading

How About That Economy?

With all the noise after the election, it’s been a while since we checked in on the state of the economy. There’s a reason for that. Will the election results change what has been a slow but steady march to a strong economy? Will 2017 still be the year when we look around and realize that everything has changed?

It seems that, so far, it’s all still marching along. There is a good chance that jobs and general growth will indeed strengthen, making Trump look like a genius. Last Friday’s employment situation survey showed that it is still moving forward – and combined with a strong holiday season there is at least some reason to cheer as a dreary 2016 starts to fade into what promises to be a crazy 2017.

Continue reading

Cold Currency War

In the Cold War, the foundation of diplomacy was mutual fear and hatred.  With that behind us, interdependence  has introduced a new system which includes much closer relationships – and something more like angst and loathing.  So has our relationship with China evolved.

As China has awakened, the GDP has grown by a factor of ten since 1990.   The population went from 22% urban to 52%.  All of this came at the expense, and mutual support, of hungry US consumers, corporations, and our nearly limitless need to finance our debt.  It was too much, too quickly, and wise investors saw that it was a bubble ready to pop – or at least relax the insane pace.

That day is coming very soon.

Continue reading