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2013, a Good Year

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It’s been a good year, even if it didn’t seem like it. 2013 was the year that the economy turned around just enough to lay the foundation for a better 2014 in several key ways. The most important is that more people have jobs, even if it’s nowhere near enough to make up for the losses from 2008-2010. The other reason is that retail sales are actually picking up and there’s reason to believe that there will be more confidence as we move ahead. The last part is very important because the psychology of a depression is the main reason it has the name it has.

Barataria was very successful in predicting the important trends of the year early on. A summary of the best posts of the year is available in the tab 2013 in Review, if you’d like to rewind the whole year. But here are the economic highlights in a quick summary.

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Three Million Reads, One Purpose

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To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 (KJV)

Sometime today, Barataria will hit 3 million total pageviews. Over 6 2/3 years that averages out to 37k per month or 2.7k per post. The views came from regular readers, social media promotion, search engine arrivals, and more than a few people who stumbled in accidentally. Things are pretty tough for me right now, so if you like what you’ve read I’d very much appreciate a donation (which may get my car a new alternator) to help keep this effort going!

But what matters most are you, the readers, because without you there’d be no point to writing at all. The ideas and perspectives I spend time thinking through only come to life after you’ve read and responded, refining them and making them better. It’s a good time to go over this strange year, 2013, to find what conclusions we’ve come to as a community – and to ask you where you think this should go!

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One Week to Go

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One week from now, the holiday shopping season fires up in a big way. Predictions for how good or bad it will be have been all over the place, ranging from a net drop in spending according to Morgan Stanley to a record-bursting rise if you believe accounting firm Deloitte. It’s been impossible to figure which was more likely, although Barataria staked a claim to the stronger end before anyone else. We’re starting to get some data in and it looks like the optimists were right. This might be a good year after all.

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It Works Out – Because of the Bad Stuff

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Over the past year, we’ve been discussing how the current depression might end.  Two distinct scenarios have emerged as the likely candidates – a slow return to work for everyone as small companies complete a transition to a new economy and a collapse of the world’s economic system.  Which will it be?

There is plenty of evidence for both.  The decline in people of working age in the developed world (and soon the developing!) points to more opportunity and higher wages once everything evens out – something like a golden age.  But the recent World Economic Forum and ongoing trauma in Europe highlight the obvious weakness at the top, starting with leadership.

The best answer for crystal ball readers is an obvious one – both might happen simultaneously.  That’s not a punt, it’s a statement of deep belief that, in the long run, the Free Market is probably going to work.

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