For many people, this is a time of great uncertainty – they don’t know what is going to happen next. For those of us who study history, what happens next isn’t the question, but rather how bad it will be – and what happens after that. This may sound like the same thing, and as far as most people are concerned it probably is. But there is a boundary to what might possibly go down and there are known likely effects of this situation. The more we understand what happened before, the more we can take confidence that we at least know where we are.