“The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.”
– John Maynard Keynes
A step back can be very illuminating, especially in economics. History teaches us an awful lot when we are willing to pay attention to what it says to us (which is almost never). The long run is also a good way to get away from current fashions, trends, and all the ways that everyone can fool themselves. Of course, as Keynes tells us, you run the risk of making a completely different mistake in the process. At least no two economists ever agree on anything, so there’s plenty of wiggle room.
It’s the bigger version of your typical financial reporting – “Stocks fell today on news that blah blah blah …” when in fact it was just a drippy grey April day in New York and everyone felt lousy.
A decade-plus trend, the increasing price of gold, is coming to a spectacular end. This may mean something very important – if it’s not the last gasp of the last bubble to work its way through our system.