While waiting for new information, it’s always good to go over the old stuff and see how we’ve done so far. Barataria used to use the weekly unemployment initial claims as an instant guide to how the Depression has been running, but stopped a year ago. The rationale at the time was that we were close to equilibrium at about 360k jobs lost every week. There wasn’t much reason to expect a change.
How did that assumption fare? And was this really proof, along with job growth leading GDP growth, that we are in an unusual economic event? Let’s go back over some old ground and see how the old predictions went. Some of this went well and some not so well.