Monday is Labor Day. This is a critical day for labor in America because its success is about to define our economic future, at least for the next few months. By the time you read this, you may know how many jobs were officially created in August. If it was 220k or more a September increase in the Fed Funds rate is likely. If it was under 180k there probably will not be a rate increase.
The ADP Employment Report, which is less prone to noise in the first place, came in with a middling 190k gain in jobs.
What’s great about this is that Labor’s success in the last month could kill the stock market, pitting labor directly against investment. There’s nothing productive about that arrangement, but it highlights how strange the world has been. This oddly critical holiday is a good time to recap some of the topics that Barataria has gone over the last few months.