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Appalling Behavior

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As we continue to slouch towards a default of the US Government, the situation remains appalling. There is no apparent movement and many in Congress don’t seem to take the situation seriously. “I think, personally, it (a default) would bring stability to the world markets,” said Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL), claiming that it would show that the US is serious about its debt problem. Nothing would change the mind of someone this willfully stupid about how markets work and what US debt (and US Dollars) represent to global markets.

But that’s just one Congressperson from one district, right? No, it’s not that simple. This is appalling behavior all around that threatens America’s economy, prestige, and ultimately our ability to function at all in any kind of organized way. I’d like to make it clear what appalls me, personally, about how this is playing out and why it’s not just a partisan issue.

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Losing? Change the Rules!

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What would it take to end the shutdown or, more importantly, raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid default?  As polling shows that this tactic (not strategy!) has proven to be a terrible disaster for the Republican Party it would seem reasonable that there are enough votes in the House to pass a “Clean CR” or bill to fund the federal government and reopen everything.  CNN has polled the membership and found that indeed if the Senate bill was introduced on the floor of the US House it would pass rather easily with bipartisan support.

So why doesn’t a vote come up?  House rules normally allow any Representative  to bring a bill from the Senate with differences from the House directly onto the floor for a vote.  But in a highly unusual parliamentary maneuver the House simply changed the rules to take that out of the hands of any member and put it exclusively in the hands of Eric Cantor (R-VA).  And so it stands that he is the only person in the US right now that can end this standoff.

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Dia de la Raza

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Tomorrow is an important holiday throughout the Spanish-speaking parts of the lands we know as The Americas.  Not one land but many, they are all united by the simple fact that on 12 October 1492 their worlds changed forever.  The holiday is known throughout most of these lands as Dia de la Raza, which translates poorly as “Day of the Race”.  Understanding just what “la Raza” means and where the term comes from is critical to this holiday, how it is celebrated, and how it is often impossible to take language out of a culture and still appreciate its meaning.

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Ready to Panic?

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What does it take for international markets to panic?  With the debt ceiling due to be hit in a little more than a week, the short answer is that the “full faith and credit of the United States” is still worth quite a lot.   We’re only starting to see the first signs of a panic as an auction of 1-month TBills sold at a net rate of 0.355%.  If that doesn’t impress you, it’s worth noting that it was one third that a week ago.

Stocks started falling, too, with the DJIA losing just over a percent.

Allright, it’s not much.  Gold isn’t budging above $1330 or so per ounce and benchmark 10yr TBills are still comfy at 2.64%.  These are probably the best standards to watch for signs of panic as the stalemate goes nowhere.

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The Tough Quarter Starts

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If you’re a fan of NFL football, you know that the fourth quarter is when all the action comes in most games.  The teams that win consistently are the teams that get tougher in the last 15 minutes week after week.  The economy is no different, relying on the holiday season to make or break any given year.

Last year, Hurricane Sandy made for a wet and limp holiday season.  There are many good reasons to believe that 2013 will be much better – except, of course for the government shutdown.  We don’t know where that will leave us until long after it’s over.  But as we check in with Barataria’s predictions for the year we can get some idea where we stand heading into the critical last quarter.

Except, of course, for the final unemployment stats.  But let’s check out what we can and see how we stand for now.

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