Blue Ribbon

A deal to end the Minnesota shutdown is still being hammered out, but the broad agreement is clear – it’s not going to be anything but a punt until the next one.  We all expected that left and right would both hate the compromise, but in a stunning twist both sides hate the deal for the same reason – it’s all gimmicks and passes on real reform.

No one reasonably expected major reform in this bill, given the late hour, but there isn’t even the promise of any later on down the road.  That means it’s up to us, the citizens of Minnesota, to push for something before next January.

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Endgame – A Way Out

The Minnesota state shutdown is dragging on with no end in sight. The sides aren’t meeting and Gov. Dayton is on a tour of the state to make his case. While there still hasn’t been a good poll on how the public feels, there are increasing signs that it is playing out much as I predicted last Friday. But at that time I didn’t include an endgame or a solution to the process. A few events and observations have led me to speculate on not just how this should end but how it could go down.

The answer is, as it always is, to get very real. There’s little substitute for leadership, and nothing creates leadership like a difficult time.

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A Weak Hand

Minnesota government has been shut down for a week now.  The State’s budget runs on a fiscal year starting July 1st and there was no agreement on how to proceed.  So it ended there, all but the most essential services ordered to stay in operation by the courts.

How will this end?  What will it mean over the long haul?  It is still far too early to say anything for sure because it has yet to play out completely.  The Independence Day holiday has made reliable polling nearly impossible so far, so we can’t even use that measure.  In place of anything intelligent there is always spin.  I’ll add a little conjecture to that and you can judge me on it later.

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Risky Business

The headlines have been screaming it for a week – “Markets soft due to ongoing Greek Crisis,” or something similar.  But like The Onion, these headlines often have all the punchline in them and the article doesn’t give much more.  Why is the Greek crisis important for US stocks and our economy?  Why should we care?

The answer is  complicated and hard to explain in an article of less than a few thousand words.  The short version of it is very scary – because a Greek default could bring down many financial institutions across the developed world.  News outlets have been shying away from this and done, on balance, a lousy job portraying the real problem with Greece.

Not that something awful is about to happen – but the odds of cataclysm are high enough that they have become scary.  That means we have to understand that worst case scenario to understand why even a small threat of it multiplies out to a huge risk.

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Throw Away the Key

A brief “News Poem” on the pending shutdown of Minnesota’s state government.

Running a state is no big piece of cake
It takes lots of courage through give and through take.
At the end of the day when they’ve all had their say
Our elected officials all want it their way.
But today there’s no center, just angry decree –
“Shut it down, lock it up, throw away the key!”

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