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Journalism and other myths.

After the Party … ?

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On this special Inauguration Day, also Dr. King Day, the nation can pause to think about where we are and where we are going.  The first thought that crossed my mind as Obama quickly and privately took the oath on the official day was, “Wow, Malia really has grown, she’s almost as tall as her Mom!”  Most of what we’ll here will be that kind of fluff that helps us all connect on a personal level to a warm, real family of actually very ordinary people in so many ways.

But that’s not what the party is really about.  The trappings of power will be all over as we start another term with the guy who got us through the last four years, for better or worse.  What can we expect?  What should we insist on?  How is this going to go down with a Republican House that appears to be uncontrolled?  It’s all guesswork, but we know a few things for sure.

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Growth is … Good?

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Growth is good.  That’s been the mantra of just about every society at every point in human history, at least until recently.  More people means more to work the land and higher productivity.  If it gets a bit out of hand, high growth can create a larger army to go knock off the neighbors and open things up even more.

The pattern held through the industrial era and right up to the point where large undeveloped nations started to have trouble feeding themselves.  There were incidents of mass starvation in some empires, likely even the Mayan, but until the 20th Century growth has always been something that everyone relies on.  Peaceful societies have put growth to work taking care of the vulnerable and generally enjoying the few years we all have on this Earth a bit more.

But what if growth slows down, or even stops?  One of the defining features of the next generation is likely to be dealing with declining growth across the planet.  It’s also one of those issues that no one is ready to talk about.

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Happy … Stuff

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Raise your hand if you are sick of the “Fiscal Cliff”.  Okay, let me count … 1 …. 2 … OK, there are a lot of you.  I guess that I shouldn’t write about the Fiscal Cliff then.  You’re back at work on 2 January like I am and we have a lot of stuff to do, right?

So, how about that House vote that … no, wait, I mean how about them Vikings, get to play the Packers at Lambeau!  AP is just on fire, I’ll bet they have a chance.  Anything to blur away the early hours of the first day back into the swing of things and avoid talking about Congress (the logical antonym of “progress”).

Sorry, folks.  I have to.  The House vote has not yet taken place as I write this, but the story is probably already written.  We waited all day for this to com e to a vote because it could not be voted on until it was sure it would pass.  Negotiations went on all day amounted to a lot of nothing in the end.  Or did they?  Something is up, I am sure.  Let’s think this through.

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Yes, it Can Get Worse

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The clock is ticking down on 2012 and the “Fiscal Cliff”.  The event is something like the weather – everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it.  Out my front door in St Paul it is 18F on a moonless night, the stars drifting by as they would on any other night.  Nothing is happening here, just as it is in Washington.  But nothing means many different things at different times.

Could the nothing of Washington be any worse?  We’ve only recently learned that the lack of a Farm Bill will likely double the price of milk, among other strange effects that will roll across the stillness of this Minnesota night like an approaching Alberta Clipper.  If we learn one thing in the middle of a big continent it’s that it could always be worse.  And yes, there is something horrible lurking in the silence of inaction – the death of the most effective anti-corruption watchdog Congress has ever had to deal with.

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The Small Story of 2012

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This is the time of year to look back and reflect.  What happened in 2012?  A lot of things happened, and yet when we look at the political and economic situation it appears that almost nothing happened at all.  About US 1.6M jobs were added during the year, but growth (change in GDP) remains at a near-recession 2% or less.  Politically, the election produced the same President and Congress who remain mired in gridlock, currently unable to get out of the “Fiscal Cliff” trap of their own making.  Europe has gone from bad to somewhat worse, proving that austerity isn’t going to help anyone.

What should we make of this year?  Not much, really.  There was not a big story in politics or economics that is worth re-hashing.  But there is a small story that has not been told.  Where did those 1.6M jobs come from, anyway?

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