Death of the Mighty Dollar

The gamesmanship of Congress is still reverberating through the world’s financial system with a big drop in stock markets today.  But that may be only the start of the problems caused by the self-inflicted calamity.  At risk is the source of the USofA’s real power around the globe – not the military, but the US Dollar itself.

The high standard of living enjoyed in the US is based on the fact that our currency is the standard “reserve currency” across the globe.  All commodities and many long-term contracts are priced in US Dollars.  If, or more likely when, that comes to a screeching halt the implications are vast for our economy and just about everything we do.  Where it gets interesting is that, done well, it could be a liberating experience.

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Fear Itself

It’s been a busy week on the economic front.  Congress got its act together, sort of, and passed a debt ceiling raiser that a solid majority of Americans considered “ridiculous”.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 500 points in response to this, a new salvo in the currency war, and uncertainly about jobs.  Today it may gain some of that back now that the July jobs report shows solid gains, however.

If stock traders and reporters alike seem to be hopping around like scared bunnies, there’s a reason for it – uncertainty induced fear.  If you are afraid for your own future, you’re clearly not alone.

That may sound like small comfort, but it shouldn’t be.  Confronting our fears will be the first step to recovery.  You can read that as either pop psychology or economics.  The source of the fear, however, will take us some time to work out because it’s a major feature of the world we live in.

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After the Storm

You first see the lightening spark out of the angry clouds.  Perhaps a sense of anxiety rose as the pressure dropped.  By the time the heavy wet smell of rain came you may have had a sharp taste of fear in the back of your throat.  The deafening roar as the atmosphere falls around you covers sirens wailing out the obvious in the wind.

The thunderstorms that roll through the Midwest leave a mark on every sense as the experience washes over the lives of those caught in it.  The recent debt ceiling debate in Washington progressed like a storm, building its way to a climax that never had a chance to live up to its intro.  With the rain passed the damage assessment will take time – but the mark on everyone’s heart and mind is clear.   We’re going to watch storms more closely for at least a while.

What that means after this political storm is not obvious, but it is visceral.

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Beyond Words

Arrrgh!  Errumph!

I’ve been trying to find words to express my frustration with Congress, but they don’t come easily.  I’m not even wasting otherwise useful swear words on them.  It’s mostly a series of grunts and roars that don’t make any sense at all, sort of like Congress itself.

Grrrrrr!

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Moving the Economy Forward

When the economy isn’t showing any signs of movement, you might think that economists don’t have a lot to talk about.  However, that point of view neglects one very important part of the ol’ dismal science –economists always have to make work for themselves in order to remain employed.  That gets us to some arcane debates over things most people I know think are pretty obvious.

Paul Krugman often gives us a good popular entry point into these debates, and his last column is no different.  Longtime readers will note that I have never been a fan of Krugman (putting it kindly), but I want to note that in this article he is actively promoting the handle “Depression” for our economic state.  But I want to take issue with him over three main topics:  The length of this Depression, the nature of Keynsianism, and the simple fact that my term “Managed Depression” is way cooler than his “Lesser Depression”.

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