There is little question that Trump will not be elected President. The only question remaining is how terrible the damage will be to the Republican Party. It’s a big question because in order to limit that damage the odds that Trump will not survive the convention in July are increasing daily.
It’s not just the horrifically bad poll numbers. It has nothing to do with his campaign manager being fired – that may have been a good thing. Skip over Moody’s analysis that he’d throw us into recession. It has everything to do with his May campaign finance report which demonstrates that there is no functional campaign. There is no money, and a fifth of what was spent went to Trump related businesses.
If there was ever any doubt that this guy is a total fraud, it’s been erased.
This is as close to a picture of him that I’ll use.
The movement to Dump Trump is organizing rapidly. What started as a small group has expanded greatly, with as many as a thousand in on a conference call earlier this week. The group, which appears to be unnamed, is stressing a “convention of conscience”. Their plan for the rules committee to “unbind” the delegates with a “conscience clause” that allows them to vote for anyone else on the first ballot.
The lack of a name to vote for, an actual candidate, is the biggest barrier they have now.
What will certainly fuel this fire is the devastating campaign finance filing for May, which came out after the growth of this movement among delegates. Trump raised only $3.1 million in May, compared to $26 million by Clinton. He has only $1.3 million on hand, compared to $43 million for Clinton.
But that’s not the worst of it.
Trump rallies have often featured violence – for a long time.
Of the money he spent in May, a solid fifth of it, over $6 million, went to Trump related businesses for catering and so on. He is out of money not just because he isn’t raising it, he is looting it. Republicans are more than furious about this shocking turn of events for good reason. There isn’t any real bottom to a campaign that is spending more than it takes in already, especially if it is going into the hands of the candidate.
This is particularly devastating for Trump because it eliminates what was perceived to be his greatest strength – that he could self-finance a campaign and be competitive everywhere at once. What we have instead plays directly into the Clinton narrative which has yet to develop – that he is a fraud who isn’t worth much money at all.
Rule #1: Have an actual product to market.
Yet to play out is the certification of the RICO lawsuit over Trump University, which will occur on 18 July – the same day the convention starts. The key word describing Trump during this time needs to be “fraud”, something which he has stuck to himself before anyone else could.
The news will indeed only get worse before the convention. We will also have a June finance report by then.
What are the odds that the Republican Convention will indeed Dump Trump? There is no good betting pool on this yet, but there will be soon. I would call it no better than 4:1 against right now, for lack of any better guess. The odds would improve dramatically if there was another potential candidate in the works, assuming his last name isn’t Bush.
Drafting Mitt Romney seems like the easiest way out at this point, so all eyes should be on him.
Mitt Romney. 2012 wasn’t a good year for him.
A move like this, which overturns the primaries, will be devastating for the party. The question has to be whether or not it will be less devastating than allowing the Trump disaster to continue. Any sensible person has to conclude that the potential risk at this point from allowing Trump to continue is completely unacceptable. We are talking about nothing less than the death of the party as a potential outcome.
As one delegate said, “It’s a convention, not a suicide pact.”
Will the Republican Party dump Trump? A few more things have to come in to play, most notably an alternative who can speak for the cause and lead it. Once that happens it is probably only a mater of time. This farce is more than shameful at this point.
As a Democrat, I should reasonably want Trump to continue to November. As an American, nothing is more imperative than putting an end to this now. Republicans, please save yourselves. We need you!
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare 
I like Trump.
You do know that he has defied all opposition to date? All odds. All commentary. All predictions?
And 25% of the voters are still undecided.
First of all, thank you for a level-headed reply to what is probably my nastiest post ever. You’re a better person than I am on this one.
And you do have a point – he has ALWAYS defied the odds. I do not see him possibly elected, however. The odds are way against him. With no money it’s just worse.
every young voter in my Republican stronghold district is voting for him, just cuz, they want’ someone not afraid to go to the mat – 🙂 On one had, I hear ’em – they are tired of working their arse off to pay for past generations mistakes and paying the price for such things – They want a VOICE! WAKE UP AMERICA! IF YOU REALLY DON”T WANT TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT, then YOU HAD BETTER, 1.) Clean up you act for the hard working GEN X in your neighborhood that mow your lawn, donate untold hours at school/Public School Functions AND, have to pay the price for BS when you aren’t available to show up and ‘be there’ when last minute, “HEY! Let’s Do THIS” stuff occurs –
HUMANS ARE BETTER THAN THIS!!!! REALLY! Everyone in my area trying so hard to work, go to the mat, to get education, work, etc., while living in an area that you can eat and be protected from hard summers/winters – (seriously, how many in WordPress Land are willing to work the equivalent of a full time job, to bring home less than $17,000/year – really? How many think making $30,000/year is a good thing? We all make sacrifices, day after day – and some, succeed and go on vacation for a time to get over their angst and others, like me, stay home, keep working and say, “I’m committed to keeping the beauty of this way of life alive, It’s not harmful – It’s supportive of my community and me – And WHEN, BY GOD WHEN?!? Is that enough – ?!?”
The previous brought to you by those that wonder – but still are aware they exist in a culture that says, “Enough is NEVER enough – Go For MORE!” – 🙂
I have spoken to a lot of Trump supporters and had some very good, respectful conversations.
What it seems to come down to is that the people in power are either incredibly corrupt or they have no idea what they are doing (readers of this site know I’m really sure it’s mostly the latter).
Either way, Trump fans want someone from the outside with experience making things happen to come in and try something new. And that is a very reasonable instinct, if you ask me.
My entire problem is that Trump is deeply flawed as a person – and I am quite convinced that he is not a successful business man but is instead a VERY successful professional celebrity. In other words, a complete fraud.
So I do understand why people back someone like Trump – although I still believe that at the very top experience does count and the place to put in new blood is in the House and Senate. But I’ll leave that all aside.
There is a place for good business people, IMHO. They are the ones who can make social legislation and safety nets actually work. We need people like that engaged in the process if you ask me.
Just not at the very top, unless they’ve proved themselves. And never Trump – he’s much more like Kim Kardashian (sp?) than, say, Warren Buffet.
The GOP establishment hated Ronald Reagan too. Called him ,”a cowboy who will blow up the world”.
They fought his nomination too.
Interesting…. 🙂
He is 100% full of crap. An embarrassment to everyone.
My contention has always been that he is a fraud. I think that is about to be proved. We’ll see.
You beat me to the draw on this one! I had a couple of rants to get out of the way first 🙂 Great post … that last paragraph echoes my sentiments exactly! I will re-blog this, as your analysis is every bit as astute as any I could come up with. No point re-inventing the wheel!
More and more, he’s turning into self-parody. He was a celebutard before there ever was a Paris or a Kim. At least they never pretended to be anything else.
The GOP and GOPTV (Faux News) created this monster and it’s probably time that they were decimated by him. They deserve it. I know that there needs to be balance in the “force”, but it will have to be reborn from a party that sloughs off the Evangelistan and the deadweight corporate meat puppets. Both parties need to run the corporatists out of a rail.
The Dems have their own problems, but it’s more from the status quo centrists than from the progressives.
They did create the monster, and they do have an obligation to stop it. Like Dr. Frankenstein. But will they? We’ll see.
BE OBJECTIVE AND COMPARE THE NEGATIVE PART OF TRUMP WITH THAT OF THE CLINTON. WHO DO YOU THINK IS MORE SINCERE AND WHO’LL HAVE THE HEART OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AT HEART WITH GENUINE INTEGRITY.? TO ME USING HIS COMPANIES FOR HIS EVENTS IS A GOOD THING, DO YOU EXPECT TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN TO USE HIS HOTELS AND OTHER ASSETS FREE? THEY HAVE TO PAY FOR EVERY SERVICES. IF TRUMP DECIDES TO COLLECT MONIES FROM THE BIG BANKS/CORPORATION AND OTHER RICH COUNTRIES TO FUND HIS CAMPAIGN, HE’LL NOT HAVE 100% FREEDOM IF ELECTED BECAUSE HE’LL DEFINITELY HAVE TO DANCE TO THEIR TUNE. I BELIEVE CLINTON IF ELECTED WILL HAVE TO DANCE TO THE TUNE OF THOSE BIG DONORS.
Who do I think is more sincere and has the American people in their heart first?
Clinton, by a very, very wide margin. There is absolutely no contest on that standard.
Which of the two is a practicing Christian? Only Clinton. http://www.christianpost.com/news/6-interesting-facts-about-hillary-clintons-christian-faith-138314/
Reblogged this on PenneyVanderbilt.
Stop him! This has gone on too long as it is! How can people just stand by and accept the racism? How can you not see he has no idea what he is talking about on just about everything? Just put an end to it now!
I think they may just. Odds are still long, but not impossible.
They won’t do it. It’s just a fantasy.
The odds are at least long, so it probably won’t happen. But remember that we have another finance report and the Judge’s decision in Cohen v Trump yet to come.
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