The Big Endorsement

Bernie Sanders endorsed Hillary Clinton today. Nearly every story on this event contains the word “finally”, but that is not entirely justified. This is a process, not an event. Today’s message was dragged out until Sanders could get every concession to his movement that he could, and for good reason. That is primarily what Sanders was in this for all along – real, progressive change.

Now, it’s up to Sanders and Clinton to sell it.  The process is not over.

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About Those E-mails …

Today was a big day for campaign news, in that nothing happened. Clinton was not indicted for her mis-handling of emails, nor did we learn anything new. It’s all over but the ranting, so we’ll pause for a moment so that you can get your share in.

[ shouting, sharing of angry memes, deep sighs, et cetera ]

Feel better? Be sure to wipe off the screen when you’re done. Because whether you believe this was purely one more witch hunt or evidence of a rigged system, you probably are better off getting it off your chest. Better in the sense that you’re probably wrong – there was something to this, but it was never going to end up in an indictment.

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Dump Trump?

There is little question that Trump will not be elected President. The only question remaining is how terrible the damage will be to the Republican Party. It’s a big question because in order to limit that damage the odds that Trump will not survive the convention in July are increasing daily.

It’s not just the horrifically bad poll numbers. It has nothing to do with his campaign manager being fired – that may have been a good thing. Skip over Moody’s analysis that he’d throw us into recession.  It has everything to do with his May campaign finance report which demonstrates that there is no functional campaign. There is no money, and a fifth of what was spent went to Trump related businesses.

If there was ever any doubt that this guy is a total fraud, it’s been erased.

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Turning Texas Blue

As the race for President narrows and already starts to be uglier, it seems as though everything is up for grabs. Everything, that is, except Republican stronghold Texas. The Barataria call for the contest to settle into the Lone Star State was met with an unusual amount of jeering in comments, social media, and mail. Have I lost my mind to left-wing gobbledy-gook?

Maybe. But I also know it’s going to be in play and that it’s worth explaining how and why. If nothing else, a few million dollars spent in Texas would scare tens of millions in Texas money out of the national race. Don’t think for a minute that a racist talk about Mexicans doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of the Republican establishment in Texas to start with – and signs that it will be capitalized on can and should create a real panic. Let’s break it down.

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The Campaign Ahead

The general election, Clinton versus Trump, is set. It will almost certainly be the nastiest election any of us have lived through, but barring something bizarre happening the outcome is rather certain. The only question remaining is whether the Democrats pick up enough downballot, in the Senate and House, to really take control.

Two things have happened that give us reason to believe this will happen. The first is that the Trump campaign had to confess that it is essentially broke and will depend on the money that comes from the actual nomination – six weeks from now. The second is that Clinton has already opened this window of opportunity with a blistering speech using Trump’s words against him.

How will this play out? Let me predict it for you.  Add your predictions and thoughts in the comments.

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