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Growth is … Good?

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Growth is good.  That’s been the mantra of just about every society at every point in human history, at least until recently.  More people means more to work the land and higher productivity.  If it gets a bit out of hand, high growth can create a larger army to go knock off the neighbors and open things up even more.

The pattern held through the industrial era and right up to the point where large undeveloped nations started to have trouble feeding themselves.  There were incidents of mass starvation in some empires, likely even the Mayan, but until the 20th Century growth has always been something that everyone relies on.  Peaceful societies have put growth to work taking care of the vulnerable and generally enjoying the few years we all have on this Earth a bit more.

But what if growth slows down, or even stops?  One of the defining features of the next generation is likely to be dealing with declining growth across the planet.  It’s also one of those issues that no one is ready to talk about.

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It’s All Good (except the bad stuff)

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The economy added 118k jobs in November, if you go by the ADP report, or 146k jobs if you go by the noisier official number.  Let’s call it 118k because we’ve consistently touted the value of the ADP report.  By any measure, it was a lot more than was expected, given the landfall of hurricane Sandy at the end of October.

Now that the election is over, there is growing optimism that the economy is indeed … growing.  It’s not a lot, but it’s there.  And that’s where we stand as we move into the next phase of the political season – the part defined by getting down to work and making use of the mandate given by voters.  That mandate is clearly defined by a divided Congress and a Democratic President who are at odds over how to either avoid the Fiscal Cliff or, perhaps, go over it.

Even if the election didn’t tell us much, the economy is.  We’d be wise to listen to it.

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While Europe Burns

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It’s been a long time since I wrote about Europe.  How many ways can a humble blogger say, “Nothing has really changed”?  Nothing has.  Currency union has turned into a straightjacket of austerity and the European Union is plunging into a deep recession.  The only true news has been a day of protest across Europe, fueled in part by the now 25% unemployment rate in Spain and other nations.  It has become a full meltdown.

But so far, no banks have failed.  Isn’t that wonderful?

There are several potential problems for the US as this continues, but the most important is its effect on our trade.  Yet, for all the trouble in Europe, it may not affect us at all.  Can Europe burn while the US stands by?  The short answer is sure, why not.  Here’s why:

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