Japan – Down the Rabbit Hole

For all we complain about low growth and dimming prospects here in the US, it’s a problem that has plagued the developed world. If anything, we’re doing quite well, thank you. Europe is still struggling to get out of the depression, with high unemployment – especially among their youth. China and other developing nations appear to have hit a wall, unable to round the corner and step up to developed nation status.

And then, there is Japan. “Basket Case” doesn’t begin to describe it.

We last checked in with them over three years ago when Shinzo Abe became Prime Minister and instituted what has been called “Abenomics”. Call it “Supply Side” if you want, as it emphasized growth in the money supply and a cheap Yen to stimulate growth in production. Call it “A license to print money by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)” if you’re a cynic.

But the problems in Japan are much more severe – they are demographic and social. Without a wholesale restructuring they are as doomed now as they have been for an entire generation. There’s a lesson here for everyone.

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Ongoing Currency War

While Syria and Ukraine have the world worried about war, a much cooler war continues across the world.  This is the one fought not with bullets or missiles, but instead with big wads of cash.  The currency war that has swept the globe since 2008 is continuing on many fronts, as we have discussed before.

It’s time for an update.  Who is winning the currency war?  Right now, the answer appears to be Japan, but China has more than a few tricks it is working on.  Europe remains a big loser and the US is pretty much holding even.

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Growth? Hai Domo!

Are you ready for the next Ronald Reagan?  Not here, in Japan.  The new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has been in office for less than a month and is already making a lot of waves with a bold new vision – spending  whatever it takes and a strong dose of saber-rattling nationalism.  It’s the latest – or really the first – plan to get Japan out of the two decade long doldrums and back onto the world stage.  Will it work?

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