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Corporate Profits – A Bad Thing?

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Though the stock market is hitting new highs, many people are less than impressed. It’s commonly believed that the Federal Reserve’s $85B per month spending on mortgage backed bonds is all that is holding things up more than reality. That was backed by the big rally after Bernanke announced the program (aka QE3) would not “taper” in the near future, but continue.

But the truth is that corporate profits are at levels that they have never been before, meaning that there is underlying value in the stock market that is driving the rise. More importantly, corporate profit margins (profit over gross revenues) are also at unknown highs. It points to not only how we get out of the job shortage that is the reason the Fed keeps buying, but also the most obvious ways to close the budget deficit – and gives a little more definition to the boomtimes that probably like ahead in the 2020s.

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Dissin’ the Jobs Report

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The September Jobs report finally came out after being delayed by the shutdown. Any way you look at it, a longer delay would have been better. According to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures, the economy only added 148k jobs in September.

But there’s a lot more to it this time around lurking behind the scenes. The markets largely shrugged off the bad news and most of the reporting on the event was dismissive. It’s almost as though the anticipation was bigger than the event – like a disappointing Christmas (whoops! Can’t say that ‘round here!). Is it possible that financial reporting is starting to wake up?

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The Tough Quarter Starts

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If you’re a fan of NFL football, you know that the fourth quarter is when all the action comes in most games.  The teams that win consistently are the teams that get tougher in the last 15 minutes week after week.  The economy is no different, relying on the holiday season to make or break any given year.

Last year, Hurricane Sandy made for a wet and limp holiday season.  There are many good reasons to believe that 2013 will be much better – except, of course for the government shutdown.  We don’t know where that will leave us until long after it’s over.  But as we check in with Barataria’s predictions for the year we can get some idea where we stand heading into the critical last quarter.

Except, of course, for the final unemployment stats.  But let’s check out what we can and see how we stand for now.

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Triple Threat

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What’s the right thing to do to help the economy?  Clearly, Congress has no idea, making bizzy with games designed to impress their constituents.  Major economists don’t agree, either, with at least three different views on what is going on and the appropriate remedies. How can it be so chaotic and disorganized?

It’s always been Barataria’s creed that if you complain about how things are you have to stick your neck out and offer a better solution.  Our answer has always been that there is a totally new economy forming around us as we work through the Managed Depression, and that there is a dire need for public and private leadership to help us create that new world dynamically.  That’s a bit too hard to define , but we can offer is a different way of looking at the situation we’re in.  It doesn’t directly point to courses of action, but it suggests things that should be tried.

Here is a description of the Triple Threat to the US Economy – Business Cycles, Globalism, and Demographics – and how they are working together to make this a once in a lifetime change.

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5 years After Lehman

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Five years ago, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and it looked for a while like everything was going to collapse.  No one knew exactly what was next as the financial system was imploding all around us.

Today, we’re still struggling to regain what we lost in the aftermath of this panic, although there is some reason to hope that we’re beginning to turn the corner.  What has happened in the wake of it all?  It’s worth taking stock and seeing where we stand.

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