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DJIA: Yes and/or No

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) keeps setting new record highs.  Does this mean the Managed Depression is over?  The short answer is “yes”, but the long answer is “no”.

The case for a “yes” is that this is based on the solid progress that we have been waiting for, and it’s backed by some strong numbers.  The “no” is that we’re still judging ourselves against either the depths of the worst part of the depression, or in the case of the DJIA a 6-year old record – it should be about 30% higher or more in that time.  But what counts is that this is based on strong corporate profits at least as much as a lack of any other place to put money and the trends should continue – unless the Federal government does something stupid.  Where do you want to put your money on that one?

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Gets Warmer From Here

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The Superbowl is behind us, as are the depths of Winter.  In many ways the year really starts now that January is behind us and the plans for the year are set.  As we have come to expect since the real depth of the latest downturn, January 2010, there is good news always tempered with not so great news.

Jobs are growing, yes, but the shock was the downturn in GDP growth in 4Q12 – a 0.1% annualized loss.  Most analysts who didn’t see this coming (your humble writer included) expect this was due to uncertainty in Washington, a result that sounds like a cheap excuse.  But it’s all we have given that there really is no reason to expect that things are continuing to slowly, ever so slowly, improve.

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The Small Story of 2012

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This is the time of year to look back and reflect.  What happened in 2012?  A lot of things happened, and yet when we look at the political and economic situation it appears that almost nothing happened at all.  About US 1.6M jobs were added during the year, but growth (change in GDP) remains at a near-recession 2% or less.  Politically, the election produced the same President and Congress who remain mired in gridlock, currently unable to get out of the “Fiscal Cliff” trap of their own making.  Europe has gone from bad to somewhat worse, proving that austerity isn’t going to help anyone.

What should we make of this year?  Not much, really.  There was not a big story in politics or economics that is worth re-hashing.  But there is a small story that has not been told.  Where did those 1.6M jobs come from, anyway?

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It’s Clearly Different

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Consumer confidence, as measured by a survey plugged into a magic formula, is at the highest level in nearly five years.  Housing prices have risen for the sixth straight month.  All is attributed to improvements in employment, something rarely noted in the media over the summer but felt by people all across the US.

The long answer is that everyone who watches this never believed that employment was improving much.  Employment growth leading the overall economy hasn’t been the way recessions have run since the end of WWII.  That alone tells us that this time is different.  What makes it different is important because it highlights what Barataria readers have been clued into since 2007 and urgently since 2008 – that this is at the very least a different kind of economic event.

Call it what you will, but there can be little doubt that different times call for different measures.

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Restructuring Our Economy

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It’s time for a repeat – this one from 18 months ago, but it still needs to be said.  Over and over.

It’s one thing to complain about the economy – anyone can do that.  But what should be done to fix it?  Longtime readers know that I believe that our economic situation is a Managed Depression and that only a fundamental restructuring will end it.  This is my Six Point Plan to do exactly that.  It describes action by the Federal Government, which is to say that it is a political platform – meaning it is incomplete and taken from a certain perspective.  If you have questions, please follow the links.

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