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It Gets Serious

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It’s not a joke anymore. Violence erupted outside a Trump rally in St Louis and a rally later in the evening was canceled, supposedly over security concerns. Where violence inside these rallies has long been ignored the act of it spilling onto the streets has suddenly caught the attention of nearly everyone. This is scary stuff.

Nevermind that it’s been at a boil for months. Somehow, a line was crossed.

This will unquestionably change the nature of the Presidential race, but it’s unclear exactly how at this point. Will it crystallize Republican opposition? Will it escalate by engaging the left? What will the average voter think of this? What will the media report?

The fiery election of 2016 just had a lot of gasoline dumped on it. It’s no longer even remotely predictable.

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Definitely NOT Over

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One week ago, Barataria asked if it was over. “It” meaning the Democratic presidential primary season and “over” meaning decided. The theory was that unless Sanders won at least a few of four key states on Super Tuesday everyone would write his political obit.

He won three of them – and this week a big surprise in Michigan. Combined with the death match in the Republican Party we have an unusually fascinating endorsing season ahead of us as both contests will definitely run through to the convention floors.

But what that is likely to mean is something very different in the case of both parties. One will be fighting to not lose and the other may wind up fighting to not win.

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The Only Thing We Have to Fear

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By the time you read this … Barataria says that far too often. Given the publication schedule at the start of each MWF, at midnight UTC, this blog often comes out before the news hits. The Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be out in just a few hours and it will be important.

This is, after all, an election year that has opened with a strong downturn in the stock market and a general feeling of panic. Money and politics have intersected in at least one critical way – people feel lousy about the future of both. But should they? And will they keep feeling lousy through November.

Our standing prediction is that sometime in July the economic future will look a lot better – which is to say just about convention time. And that better feeling may start with the BLS jobs report tomorrow – if only because it’s starting to look like the stock market is ready to believe good news.

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Scary ol’ Populism

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The intersection of politics and business is rarely good for anyone. Too much money corrupts governing and too much governing can get awfully expensive – as can haphazard, capricious, and ego-driven governing.

Which is why the question has to be raised now that a certain person appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination – and his name ain’t Cruz. We have a policy at Barataria of never mentioning his name, something like Voldemort, as he gets enough oxygen for being obnoxious (noxygen?) already.

But is his rise part of the reason why markets have been somewhat panicked? It’s hard to tell, but there is reason to believe that markets in general, as well as faith in the US of A from abroad, are starting to react badly to the rising prospects of the greatest nation ever being run as the largest and most powerful ever set for a reality show.

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But What About Those Republicans?

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We’ve talked about the existential search for the soul of the Democratic Party, but what about the Republicans? They aren’t a party for much in the way of soul-searching by nature. They’re typically driven by two important forces: conservative ideology and winning.

Then again, there’s a third force that’s always present – the establishment and their ability to control things.

Today, most of this has been thrown out the window. The defenestration (a word I have longed to use) of the party’s most cherished forces has come down to a rough populist sense of conservatism. Winning? It’s not worth it if all we get are RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). Control by the establishment? Hahahaha! The Iowa Caucus, never a reliable gauge of anything, may have given us some guidance only in the sense that the top three are likely to dominate New Hampshire and maybe beyond. Let’s run this down and see where it takes us.

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