It’s been nearly a year since Janet Yellen, in her first testimony press conference after a Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, told the world just what she was looking for before raising the Fed Funds Rate (and everything that rises along with it). The openness was remarkable for a Fed Chair and a sign of a new era as a woman took control of what is arguably the most power job in the world.
Since that time, we have followed “Yellen’s Dashboard” with periodic updates to just just how we’re doin’. Nearly everyone agrees that interest rates will rise sometime this year, probably around June, as she has told us. But how does that stack up against her very public criteria? It’s worth checking in with some math to see where we are with rates and what we can expect.