Will the economy produce a lot more jobs in 2012, or are we stalled looking at permanent unemployment and a new underclass?  It’s an important question because the answer to it predicts the course of the election season far more than anything else.  It’s the economy, stupid – really it’s the jobs.  Nothing else is likely to matter as President Obama makes the case for his own re-election – and likely runs against Congressional paralysis in the process.

If we want to predict tomorrow’s news today, there is nothing more important than what might happen with employment.  While we can never be sure exactly what will happen, we can put boundaries on the possibilities.

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