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Monthly Archives: October 2013

The Tough Quarter Starts

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If you’re a fan of NFL football, you know that the fourth quarter is when all the action comes in most games.  The teams that win consistently are the teams that get tougher in the last 15 minutes week after week.  The economy is no different, relying on the holiday season to make or break any given year.

Last year, Hurricane Sandy made for a wet and limp holiday season.  There are many good reasons to believe that 2013 will be much better – except, of course for the government shutdown.  We don’t know where that will leave us until long after it’s over.  But as we check in with Barataria’s predictions for the year we can get some idea where we stand heading into the critical last quarter.

Except, of course, for the final unemployment stats.  But let’s check out what we can and see how we stand for now.

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Endgame?

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What will it take to end the shutdown?  There isn’t much that can be compromised in this situation, given that we have two issues at stake – the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) on one side and the continuing resolution plus the debt ceiling on the other.  There’s just not a lot of give when you have this kind of asymmetry.  So it’s almost certainly going to be one side that caves.

As said before, it’s hard to imagine the President and his supporters in the US Senate giving in, so let’s just call that a low probability event.  It’s probably going to be a Republican give of some kind.  And one is brewing in the form of a general revolt of “pragmatic Republicans” who understand how dangerous this game is.

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Dear Republican Friends:

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How ya doin’?  I know this is a tough time and the last person you want to hear from is a Democrat, but many of you are friends of mine.  Some of the kindest and most decent people I know are Republicans, and I care about you.  Much of my family were and are Republicans, too.  You have to know I write this from the bottom of my heart.

I’m really worried about you – as a party.  I think that this nation works best when there are two engaged, committed, fearless, and honest parties mixin’ it up – but also gettin’ ‘er done.  And …. well, rather than just get mad and blame you all for the very public way your party is ripping apart I thought I’d offer my support and encouragement for you to get better soon.  Really, anything I can do to help.  But let me tell you why this is so important to me.

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