It’s been week since a blowout jobs report set fire to financial markets and signaled that everything is about to change. Barataria predicted a good report, if very timidly, and gave everything a week to shake out. So where do we stand a week from the first clear signal liftoff is occurring?
The short answer is that markets have absorbed the reality of a rising Fed Funds Rate. The long answer is that it sure doesn’t look like it for a lot of reasons which are complicated and confusing. In an increasingly smaller world there is nothing that confines money to one “market”, meaning that pressure is on from all directions.
The upshot is that after an initial spike there is reason to believe a rise in interest rates by the Fed may yet trigger a net medium-term fall in interest rates paid by consumers, as predicted. It’s worth explaining further.
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare 