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Final Thoughts

What more is there to say before we get this dreadful election over with?

No matter what, the sun will come up on Wednesday, November 9th. We will all go about our daily business even if some parts of the results aren’t finalized yet. America will survive and everything will be largely OK.

But one thing will be different. We won’t look at each other quite the same way again.

Hillary Clinton

“I got this.”

One thing we know ahead of the results coming in is that turnout is incredibly high. Normally, an ugly election means low turnout – but not this time. High turnout only favors Democrats up and down the ballot, meaning that there could be some very big changes in the works.

Turnout is especially high among Hispanics. The press is making a big deal about this for two reasons. One is that it is a big deal – Hispanic voter turnout has always been lower than Anglo. The other is that they didn’t seem to see it coming, which is utterly astounding. Trump made this election personal for them on so many levels so the likely result that turnout would increase dramatically had to be a given.

Like most very obvious trends, the press seems to have missed it. So did many of the “likely voter” models, meaning that polls are essentially useless. Given that only one side in this election, the Democrats, is being run by professionals who know what they are doing and thus has a substantial Get Out The Vote effort we know what should happen.

This will be a good night for Democrats.

ayotte

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) is unlikely to be smiling on the night of 8 November.

As I said before, the race to watch early is New Hampshire. It should go handily to Clinton, but more importantly there is little chance for the Democrats to take the Senate without knocking off Sen. Ayotte. We’ll know early in the evening if there is a chance for this.

All eyes will be on North Carolina, but the state to watch for a Clinton Landslide is Georgia. If that goes for her this will be a very blue night all around. After that, watch Texas in the Central Time Zone for the entertainment of the evening.

Florida district 27, currently held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, will show us early if the House is in play. She is a moderate Republican with a great, long record in a district that is turning bluer every day. If she is bumped we can say that the House is in play.

Final prediction? Clinton 50, Trump 38, others 12. Senate 52 Democrats. House 218-217 Republican but that is obviously a punt because no one can tell at this point.

Vote

No one votes this way anymore, but we like the image of doing so.

The talk will be of a Clinton mandate, and it will be as silly as all talk of a mandate after an election. A mandate is not given, it is earned and created. By trying to frame this entire election as a referendum on Trump there is no real support for Clinton, as a president, and that is a problem. However, the final NBC poll showed that 52% of all Americans are comfortable with her as President, essentially matching Obama’s 54% approval rating.

She will earn her mandate the way she does everything – by reaching out. After the election we can expect her to lead the nation in healing and getting over this nonsense once and for all.

If the best prediction holds, the Senate will be narrowly Democrat and the House narrowly Republican. That’s a recipe for complete inaction unless the grown ups show up to run this nation. Early on we can expect that they will and there will be something like a healing.

Trump More Violence

Trump rallies have often featured violence – for a long time.

Will armed groups do stupid things after the election? Maybe. Probably. Who knows, who cares? The focus will be on the sane and the smart and the responsible – where it should be.

How will everything go once this is over? I predict, once again, that as surely as 2017 is the Year Everything Changes the season leading into it will be the time when that becomes obvious.

What we know is that the first step of the process is getting past this nonsense. It will all be over soon. That will be a good start.

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14 thoughts on “Final Thoughts

  1. I like your predictions, Erik, and all ten fingers are crossed in hopes that you are right. I agree with you, but in the past few days have doubted even my own assessment. Great post!

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