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Author Archives: Erik Hare

Dump Trump?

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There is little question that Trump will not be elected President. The only question remaining is how terrible the damage will be to the Republican Party. It’s a big question because in order to limit that damage the odds that Trump will not survive the convention in July are increasing daily.

It’s not just the horrifically bad poll numbers. It has nothing to do with his campaign manager being fired – that may have been a good thing. Skip over Moody’s analysis that he’d throw us into recession.  It has everything to do with his May campaign finance report which demonstrates that there is no functional campaign. There is no money, and a fifth of what was spent went to Trump related businesses.

If there was ever any doubt that this guy is a total fraud, it’s been erased.

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Risk Aversion

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The economic news out of most of the world points to a continued, if not new, slowdown. Japan is going nowhere, Europe may be shrinking, China is bleeding capital, and the rest of the world is hanging on. The only place there is good news is here in the US where … there was a net slowdown in the number of jobs gained in May. None of this looks good.

For everyone outside the US, it doesn’t. But most of that money from China is coming to the US – or, more accurately, coming back. Why aren’t things looking up?

Global instability doesn’t help anyone, which is why the Fed stopped raising rates. We can’t go it alone anymore, not in this inter-connected world. It spooks everyone to see this much risk. Yet there is still reason to believe that the US, alone, will see a period of higher growth by the end of the year. It’s all about that money coming back – and when it gets put to use.

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“Brexit” Turns Violent

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Jo Cox, MP, was killed today in Birstall, West Yorkshire. She was leaving a “surgery”, the British term for what we in the US call a “town hall”. The attacker was reported to have shouted, “Put Britain first!” a reference to the referendum in one week on whether the UK should leave the European Union (EU).

If you were thinking the whole world has gone mad, you are right.

While we in the US are shaken by a horrific attack on ordinary citizens, the UK now has to contemplate political violence – something it has not seen since the end of the IRA’s campaign in 1990. There is no comparison between terror inflicted on the public and on the political system, as each is horrible in its own way. But we can reasonable expect there will be more of each until something dramatic happens.

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Common Sense Gun Laws

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In the wake of the Orlando shooting, the inevitable cry for new gun laws has arisen. Can’t we keep guns out of the hands of crazies? Why does anyone need an AR-15? How do people like this keep getting guns?

In order to break the logjam, I want to add my support to a modest step that may be very effective. It’s been proven in 15 states to reduce gun deaths and is certainly constitutional. More importantly, it helps us to move past the infatuation with guns and focus on people.

I believe that a national law requiring a permit to own a gun, which displays both credibility and competency, is both passable and implementable. Call it a “Common Sense Gun Law” if you like.

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Constant Outrage

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I was going to write about nearly anything else. The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union, some interesting economic news, just about anything. But the shooting at Pulse nightclub in Orlando fills every space it can. News reports, conversations, thoughts and prayers all turn to this horrifying event.

Normally, the mantra “I don’t break news, I fix it” would compel me to wait a few days for an angle on a big story that adds to the context and perspective on this story, helping everyone make sense of it. There’s no point. This was a senseless act that stands on its own. But there is a need for context as one more outrageous act produces more outrage. It seems to be the only emotion we have.

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