Understanding the changes that have taken place in our economy over the last two generations helps us to understand the nature of the Depression or near Depression we are in now. The most important reason for this is that the way out of a economic downturn is a restructuring – allocating energy and money to something that has a real value to the world. Think of it as a chance to go to our rooms and think about what we’ve done and what we’re going to do different in the future. The other reason is that as we look to the last Depression for guidance as to what we should be doing, there are obvious limitations caused by the simple fact that things have changed.
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Economics and commerce, all built from scratch.
A Fireside Chat
History doesn’t repeat itself. As the cycles rise and fall there are always different circumstances, new actors and a different spirit in the people. Somehow, it seems, we even learn a thing or two along the way. As we confront the possibility of a new Depression we can see that our leaders are responding to it in a way that may make all the difference. First, however, it’s good to take a look back at what worked the last time – and what didn’t.
Build a Better Tomorrow
Things rarely go as planned. I was hoping to move from my analysis explaining the current Depression (or potential Depression) into some solutions. Along the way, I realized that most of my solutions were rather vague, which is to say a lot like FDR’s plan. Since I don’t expect anyone to believe I have anything in common with FDR (other than being a terrier owner), it seemed like time to punt. Beyond that, it became very clear to me that people do not understand why a heavy reliance on finance is such a bad thing. So here we go.
The Long View
I tend to take the long view on things. Granted, I like to eat every day and I have bad habits that make me act in the shockingly short term. When it comes time to explain things, however, all the pleasure and gratification seeking behaviors of people happen in response to some kind of social construction. We dare not act too far out of line for fear of losing everything we have in money, status, and all the other things that we use to get our kicks. Transformations take place generationally because we grow up with ideas about pleasure and guilt, wrong and right that are comfortable. Things don’t just change overnight because we don’t change that quickly.
Overhead or Head Count?
Roughly 11 million people are unemployed in the USofA, and there is every reason to believe that this will increase. Every month another 600k or so workers file for unemployment insurance. This figure doesn’t include those who do not have a full 40 hours of work each week but would like to – add them in, and the number might be twice as high. If this grows substantially, any discussion regarding this as a recession or depression will be academic. Stopping the job loss is likely to become the highest priority soon.
