Home » Nooze (Page 67)

Category Archives: Nooze

Journalism and other myths.

Senate Shakedown

Posted on by | 8 Comments

Will the Senate go Republican? Nearly everyone believes it is likely, and has for a long time. It’s hard to see how that will be any different from today, given the ability to filibuster absolutely anything in that body.

Beyond Democrats and Republicans, there is a third option that is growing – some kind of independent fueled chaos and perhaps a heavy dose of Joe Biden in the works. The possibilities are absolutely delicious for many reasons. Not only would it give us all something to write about, a Senate in chaos would probably more accurately reflect the mood of the nation. Here’s how it goes.

Continue reading →

Up is Down, Until It’s Just Up

Posted on by | 9 Comments

It’s been one week since Barataria made the prediction that if good news came in on jobs the stock market would tank. The good news came in, with the headline unemployment number slipping below 6% for the first time since 2008. Immediately, the market proved Barataria to be wrong. Then right. Then wrong. Then right, again.

It’s been a roller-coaster of a week. How does that stack up with any prediction at all?

It’s probably time to make another prediction. Let’s stick with the first one, that the stock market is due for a decent but not horrific “correction” that re-affirms that we’re really still in a secular bear market. But with the focus on Fed action we are also entering a time when the logic of the market finally turns rightside up – and good news will once again become unalloyed good news.

We just have to get through the ride before we know what’s up – literally up.

Continue reading →

Yellen’s Dashboard – Update

Posted on by | 6 Comments

Another quarter has come, and it arrived with good news on jobs. The stock market didn’t tank right away, but most investors agree that the daze of puffed-up valuations for everyone are over. The consensus seems to be that rather than a general fall, investors will have to be more selective and careful. This is consistent with an economy that is changing and gradually turning over, ahead of the next Big Thing that will propel a real bull market in coming years.

But where do we stand with respect to Yellen’s Dashboard – those key economic indicators that Fed Chair Yellen said she’d be watching for movement where there has been so little over the past few years? We don’t have all the data to fill in where 3Q14 stands, but we have most of it. And it all looks good. Which is to say bad, if you’re so minded, because it really does look like the Fed is going to raise rates.

Continue reading →

Pop!

Posted on by | 9 Comments

The big test for the stock market comes with the release of unemployment figures, which probably has already occurred if you are reading this after 3 October. If unemployment comes in at better than last month’s 6.1%, what is also expected this month, there will be a serious problem for the stock market.

How is that? Do rich people only prosper when the working stiffs are suffering? The short answer is “no”, but the long answer is “yes”. It shouldn’t be set up that way, but the fragile bubble at the end of a 3 year long expansion in the S&P500 is kept aloft partly by Fed Action – and that comes to a halt as good news trickles in.

Continue reading →

The Secret Goldman Tapes

Posted on by | 12 Comments

It’s the kind of bombshell that, once it goes off, surprises no one at all. The American public is used to reports of bad behavior from banks and a complete lack of apparent regulation to stop abusive behavior. It was all supposed to change, yes, but no one believed it did.

Now, there are tapes. On “The American Life” the segment on the tapes of Carmen Segarra, former New York Fed lawyer assigned to Goldman Sachs, are the kind of explosion that may be something new. For one thing, they are raw and go deep into the heart of why the Federal Reserve isn’t regulating banks the way it should be. For another, they are the centerpiece of an investigation by the Senate Banking Committee headed by Sen. Warren (D-MA).

This could go somewhere. And it should.

Continue reading →