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Journalism and other myths.

A New Cold War?

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Are the clouds of a new “Cold War” gathering over Russia and the US? A member of the Russian Duma has declared as much, and it’s resonating through the world for one simple reason – it sure seems right. Sanctions are starting to bite hard throughout Europe as the ties that were formed since the last Cold War ended 25 years ago slowly meandered towards integration.

But was the integration of Russia, and for that matter China, really such a good thing in the first place? Many nations around the world don’t share the same values as the West and stand in competition to what we value as an open society. Clouds of war challenge not just our relations, but the very soul of what we as a people value most dearly. And we value it because it makes us who we are.

It’s called “Social Capital”. It is the fruits of an open society. The parts of the world that aren’t ready for it will always be in conflict with us over it, and we are at our best when we don’t forget it.

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New Measures for New Times

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When the first estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year (2Q14) came out, there was reason to cheer. A solid gain of 4.0% seemed to really shake off the fear cause by the figure for 1Q14, revised up to -2.1%. There wasn’t a new recession after all, and growth is back to being robust. Right?

It’s OK, we’re among friends. Your skepticism is justified. The main reason for the fall in 1Q14 was a big drop in health care expenditures, partly due to a revised way of calculating them. The problem is the way we gather this magic figure called GDP, a supposed measure of the total size of the economy. Just before the figure for 2Q14 came out a new measure of the economy, Gross Output (GO), was introduced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It illustrates the problems with GDP, especially as we all focus on jobs as the real sign of economic health.

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Making Predictions

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Can anyone predict the future? Weatherpeople are routinely called on to tell us more than just what happened today- they are supposed to say if it’s going to rain and what temperature we can expect. Sportscasters have moved beyond a blank reporting of the Vegas line, say the Dolphins +4, and are expected to put themselves on the line with a solid call every week.

Not economic reporters. When there’s a lot of money on the line no one is willing to stick their neck out and tell you just what will happen tomorrow. That’s especially strange when you realize that a free market economy is all about balancing risk and reward, which is to say at some point boiling it all down to a solid prediction as to how likely an investment is to come in versus the possible gain from it. Business and economic reporters usually get a pass that the weather and sports people must only dream about. But that’s ridiculous.

Barataria is all about making a prediction and standing by it. Let’s refine that model a bit.

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Wackos with Guns

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The pictures and stories coming from Donetsk, Ukraine, are horrifying. Bodies flung from Malaysia Air flight 17 have been lying in the fields right where they fell from the sky, rotting in the summer sun for days. Wreckage is everywhere, some of it disturbed in what appears to be looting as much as recovery. How can this happen?

The short answer is that the area is not under the control of any organized or trained government, but held by a group of separatists with guns. Some have been described as “visibly intoxicated” as they fired into the air to shoo off international investigators. It seems ridiculous, but the families – indeed, the entire world – is being held hostage by a few wackos with guns.

That’s the state of the world right now as we all draw much closer. A little bit of chaos in one part of the planet affects everyone – even when the number of people involved is small.

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James Garner

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The 1970s were a tough decade on everyone. Everything was changing rapidly as a new generation came of age in the wake of social and political turmoil. Television had given us characters like Archie Bunker so that we could laugh at how ridiculous it was to hold onto the gone away glory days, but laughing wasn’t enough. To a young kid soon to make his way into this new world pop culture needed to offer something more profound yet subversively simple.

“The Rockford Files” started in 1974 as one of many detective shows that were popular diversions away from the chaos. It quickly became a vehicle for the talent, the personality, and in a sly way the values of its star, Jame Garner. Garner’s death today at age 86 brings back a flood of memories from Friday night TV time with Dad, but there was more than that to him. James Garner taught my generation what it meant to be a man.

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